Big 12 Update: Week 5

Big 12 Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1715.0 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.63 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arizona State

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1539.7 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.30 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1685.3 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.23 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Baylor

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1630.9 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.53 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cincinnati

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1560.7 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.26 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1582.6 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.57 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Houston

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1793.7 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.22 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 9-0 | Elo: 1710.6 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.08 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1646.3 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.15 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas State

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1541.9 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.70 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma State

Record: 9-0 | Elo: 1593.9 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.97 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

TCU

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1563.3 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.54 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas Tech

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1680.2 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.83 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UCF

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1597.2 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.61 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.20 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1554.3 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.86 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12
TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference

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