Big Ten Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska
Trending Down (Efficiency): Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1652.4 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.76 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Indiana

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1600.5 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.85 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1601.3 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.40 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Maryland

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1627.0 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.79 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1689.5 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +46.56 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Michigan State

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1714.2 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.52 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Minnesota

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1508.2 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.49 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nebraska

Record: 9-0 | Elo: 1634.1 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.92 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1547.7 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.77 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1592.5 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.90 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1606.9 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.43 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1568.0 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.25 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Purdue

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1712.6 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.61 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1518.5 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.73 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCLA

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1626.3 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.82 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

USC

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1588.0 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.45 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Washington

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1525.8 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.84 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1653.4 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.63 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference