Week 5 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

Week 5: December 01 – December 08, 2025
Let’s count down this week’s ten most surprising results.

#10: UAB @ Mid Tennessee

Final Score: Mid Tennessee 76, UAB 61
Date: December 01, 2025
Venue: UAB @ Mid Tennessee
Favorite: UAB (Ranked #134)
Underdog: Mid Tennessee (Ranked #210)
Predicted Score: UAB 81.3 – 78.2 (3.1 points)
Upset Rating: 4.3

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: Mid Tennessee 8-20 (40%), UAB 6-26 (23%)
Two-point shooting: Mid Tennessee 21-41 (51%), UAB 16-37 (43%)

#9: Indiana @ Minnesota

Final Score: Minnesota 73, Indiana 64
Date: December 03, 2025
Venue: Indiana @ Minnesota
Favorite: Indiana (Ranked #26)
Underdog: Minnesota (Ranked #115)
Predicted Score: Indiana 76.3 – 71.3 (5.0 points)
Upset Rating: 9.3

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Indiana had 2 players with 4+ fouls
Rebounding: Minnesota 36, Indiana 22 (14-rebound advantage)
Three-point shooting: Minnesota 8-21 (38%), Indiana 8-27 (30%)
Two-point shooting: Minnesota 15-26 (58%), Indiana 14-28 (50%)

#8: Northeastern @ Holy Cross

Final Score: Holy Cross 76, Northeastern 59
Date: December 03, 2025
Venue: Northeastern @ Holy Cross
Favorite: Northeastern (Ranked #176)
Underdog: Holy Cross (Ranked #270)
Predicted Score: Northeastern 76.4 – 69.7 (6.7 points)
Upset Rating: 10.6

Key Factors:

Free throws: Holy Cross 11-13 (85%), Northeastern 3-8 (38%)
Two-point shooting: Holy Cross 25-40 (62%), Northeastern 16-33 (48%)
Three-point shooting: Holy Cross 5-16 (31%), Northeastern 8-28 (29%)

#7: North Alabama @ San Francisco

Final Score: North Alabama 65, San Francisco 63
Date: December 03, 2025
Venue: North Alabama @ San Francisco
Favorite: San Francisco (Ranked #103)
Underdog: North Alabama (Ranked #247)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 78.6 – 73.0 (5.6 points)
Upset Rating: 10.6

Key Factors:

Free throws: North Alabama 14-17 (82%), San Francisco 10-16 (62%)
Three-point shooting: North Alabama 3-15 (20%), San Francisco 9-31 (29%)

#6: C. Carolina @ Winthrop

Final Score: C. Carolina 88, Winthrop 84
Date: December 06, 2025
Venue: C. Carolina @ Winthrop
Favorite: Winthrop (Ranked #156)
Underdog: C. Carolina (Ranked #227)
Predicted Score: Winthrop 82.1 – 73.0 (9.1 points)
Upset Rating: 12.9

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Winthrop had 2 players with 4+ fouls
Three-point shooting: C. Carolina 12-26 (46%), Winthrop 10-31 (32%)
Two-point shooting: C. Carolina 16-32 (50%), Winthrop 15-34 (44%)

#5: S Illinois @ High Point

Final Score: S Illinois 86, High Point 84
Date: December 03, 2025
Venue: S Illinois @ High Point
Favorite: High Point (Ranked #73)
Underdog: S Illinois (Ranked #122)
Predicted Score: High Point 81.2 – 72.9 (8.4 points)
Upset Rating: 13.7

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: S Illinois 10-22 (45%), High Point 10-26 (38%)
Two-point shooting: S Illinois 23-45 (51%), High Point 18-39 (46%)

#4: Montana State @ Oral Roberts

Final Score: Oral Roberts 72, Montana State 68
Date: December 06, 2025
Venue: Montana State @ Oral Roberts
Favorite: Montana State (Ranked #162)
Underdog: Oral Roberts (Ranked #307)
Predicted Score: Montana State 79.7 – 70.7 (9.1 points)
Upset Rating: 17.8

Key Factors:

Free throws: Oral Roberts 24-26 (92%), Montana State 9-13 (69%)
Foul trouble: Montana State had 2 players with 4+ fouls

#3: Utah State @ USF

Final Score: USF 74, Utah State 61
Date: December 04, 2025
Venue: Utah State @ USF
Favorite: Utah State (Ranked #35)
Underdog: USF (Ranked #85)
Predicted Score: Utah State 83.0 – 70.7 (12.3 points)
Upset Rating: 22.5

Key Factors:

Free throws: USF 24-32 (75%), Utah State 10-15 (67%)
Foul trouble: Utah State had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
Two-point shooting: USF 13-26 (50%), Utah State 15-38 (39%)
Rebounding: USF 36, Utah State 27 (9-rebound advantage)

#2: West Georgia @ Troy

Final Score: West Georgia 93, Troy 89
Date: December 01, 2025
Venue: West Georgia @ Troy
Favorite: Troy (Ranked #179)
Underdog: West Georgia (Ranked #284)
Predicted Score: Troy 81.7 – 65.8 (15.9 points)
Upset Rating: 26.5

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Troy had 3 players with 4+ fouls
Bench scoring: West Georgia 35 points, Troy 5 points (30-point advantage)
Turnovers: Troy 16, West Georgia 4 (12-turnover disparity)
Three-point shooting: West Georgia 8-23 (35%), Troy 9-28 (32%)

#1: McNeese @ Incarnate Word

Final Score: Incarnate Word 71, McNeese 67
Date: December 01, 2025
Venue: McNeese @ Incarnate Word
Favorite: McNeese (Ranked #74)
Underdog: Incarnate Word (Ranked #325)
Predicted Score: McNeese 79.7 – 65.9 (13.8 points)
Upset Rating: 39.6

Key Factors: