ACC Update: Week 8

ACC Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1467.2 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.64 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cal

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.86 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1674.8 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.83 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1779.2 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +41.49 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida State

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1514.6 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.33 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia Tech

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1527.1 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.49 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisville

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1641.2 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.82 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1511.5 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.28 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

NC State

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1553.8 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.03 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Notre Dame

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.82 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pitt

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1529.4 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.12 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

SMU

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1619.2 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.12 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1587.9 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.07 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1542.4 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.40 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1685.3 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.71 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1604.8 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.69 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1565.9 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.80 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1595.0 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.22 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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