American Update: Week 8

American Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1440.8 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.25 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

ECU

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1461.9 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.08 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

FAU

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1575.4 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.91 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Memphis

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1627.5 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.08 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1612.0 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.76 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Rice

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1423.0 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.18 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1518.5 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.23 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1540.2 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.25 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tulsa

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1523.8 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.00 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UAB

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1615.9 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.91 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

USF

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1519.8 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.44 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1397.3 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.28 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1531.9 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.90 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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