Atlantic Sun Update: Week 8

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1460.5 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.90 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1345.5 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.93 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1365.6 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.94 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

E Kentucky

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1464.1 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.00 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1480.5 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.68 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1462.8 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.01 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1572.8 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.82 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1524.8 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.21 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 2-11 | Elo: 1386.0 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.16 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Queens University

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1485.7 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.10 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1367.3 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.28 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1399.5 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.49 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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