Big South Update: Week 8

Big South Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1419.5 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.62 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 2-13 | Elo: 1374.1 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.86 (ranked 363 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

High Point

Record: 12-3 | Elo: 1618.1 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.20 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Longwood

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1470.8 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.72 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1407.1 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.86 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Radford

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1468.0 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.20 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1500.5 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.31 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

USC Upstate

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1376.4 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.97 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1521.7 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.71 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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