Conference USA Update: Week 8

Conference USA Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

Conference USA enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1469.0 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.93 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

FIU

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1414.6 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.33 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville St

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1493.6 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.98 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kennesaw State

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1518.3 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.27 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

LA Tech

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1538.1 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.86 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Liberty

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1629.7 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.20 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1550.2 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.79 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Missouri State

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1414.0 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.91 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

New Mexico St

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1519.9 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.46 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Sam Houston

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1529.2 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.18 (ranked 125 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UTEP

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1451.8 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.69 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

W Kentucky

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1510.0 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.51 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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