MAAC Update: Week 8

MAAC Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1361.1 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.00 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1482.9 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.04 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iona

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1560.2 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.14 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1432.1 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.34 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Marist

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1543.5 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.23 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Merrimack

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1530.1 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.10 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1484.6 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.41 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 3-9 | Elo: 1386.4 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.55 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1582.9 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.61 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rider

Record: 1-10 | Elo: 1413.9 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.11 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1452.9 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.03 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Siena

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1484.0 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.44 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1465.5 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.81 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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