MEAC Update: Week 8

MEAC Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MEAC enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Coppin State

Record: 2-14 | Elo: 1295.3 (ranked 368 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.29 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Delaware State

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1404.5 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.20 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Howard

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1463.3 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.25 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

MD-E Shore

Record: 4-13 | Elo: 1310.9 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.43 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Morgan State

Record: 2-11 | Elo: 1344.5 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -32.29 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

NC Central

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1374.4 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.35 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Norfolk State

Record: 6-10 | Elo: 1502.9 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.08 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

S Carolina St

Record: 1-13 | Elo: 1398.2 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -36.83 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MEAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMEAC
TagsMEAC Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

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