Horizon Update: Week 9

Horizon Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 5-11 | Elo: 1456.4 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.27 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1362.3 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.87 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Green Bay

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1388.8 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.81 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

IUPUI

Record: 4-13 | Elo: 1290.5 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.63 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1529.2 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.87 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

N Kentucky

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1533.2 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.08 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oakland

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1546.4 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.10 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1502.2 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.66 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1558.9 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.85 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1479.9 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.31 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1507.4 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.46 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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