Ivy Update: Week 9

Ivy Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Ivy enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ivy teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brown

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1474.2 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.18 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Columbia

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1485.4 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.77 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cornell

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1561.4 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.01 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Dartmouth

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1450.3 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.99 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Harvard

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1494.3 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.45 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Penn

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1446.4 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.70 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Princeton

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1505.8 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.33 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Yale

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1672.5 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.20 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ivy teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryIVY
TagsIVY Ivy League

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