Mountain West Update: Week 9

Mountain West Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-11 | Elo: 1314.2 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.27 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1643.1 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.67 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Colorado State

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1651.7 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.44 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1381.4 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.01 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1611.7 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.39 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nevada

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1611.8 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.15 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

New Mexico

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1667.2 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.31 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1637.9 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.84 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1435.3 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.16 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1545.6 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.84 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah State

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1697.5 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.95 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wyoming

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1493.1 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.20 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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