Patriot League Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 29 – January 04, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): American, Army, Boston U, Lafayette, Lehigh
Trending Down (Efficiency): Bucknell, Colgate, Holy Cross

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1513.0 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.67 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Army

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1429.4 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.42 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1421.3 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.28 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Points per Poss (Opp Points per Possession): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1439.8 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.79 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Colgate

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1509.7 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.66 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Holy Cross

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1377.5 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.25 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lafayette

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1365.7 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.75 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lehigh

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1365.4 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.15 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1334.9 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.81 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Navy

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1492.5 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.75 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT

TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League