SEC Update: Week 9

SEC Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1735.8 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.21 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Arkansas

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1643.1 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.12 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1716.1 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.40 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1717.6 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.39 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Georgia

Record: 13-1 | Elo: 1630.8 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.60 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1636.8 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.50 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

LSU

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1564.5 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.73 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miss St

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1601.6 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.58 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1586.8 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.21 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1605.4 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.07 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Ole Miss

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1582.4 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.72 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • 3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

South Carolina

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1507.9 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.40 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1697.4 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.50 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1563.9 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.87 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1644.1 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.95 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Vanderbilt

Record: 14-0 | Elo: 1662.0 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.18 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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