America East Update: Week 10

America East Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The America East enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1410.5 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.76 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Binghamton

Record: 2-14 | Elo: 1348.8 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.88 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bryant

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1482.3 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.46 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Maine

Record: 3-15 | Elo: 1409.8 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.97 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

NJIT

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1355.6 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.93 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UMBC

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1434.0 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.68 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UMass Lowell

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1479.0 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.94 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNH

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1364.2 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.29 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Vermont

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1568.7 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.60 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As America East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East
TagsAEC America East America East Conference

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