Big Ten Update: Week 10
January 12, 2026The Big Ten enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: January 05 – January 11, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Illinois
Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1685.8 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.22 (ranked 12 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Indiana
Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1613.2 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.15 (ranked 27 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Iowa
Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1595.6 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.27 (ranked 14 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Maryland
Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1579.7 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.68 (ranked 147 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Michigan
Record: 14-1 | Elo: 1710.5 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +45.50 (ranked 1 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Michigan State
Record: 14-2 | Elo: 1732.5 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.04 (ranked 21 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Minnesota
Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1531.9 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.81 (ranked 83 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Nebraska
Record: 16-0 | Elo: 1690.9 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.07 (ranked 20 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Northwestern
Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1527.7 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.83 (ranked 41 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Ohio State
Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1591.5 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.04 (ranked 34 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Oregon
Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1601.4 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.30 (ranked 87 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Penn State
Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1525.7 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.59 (ranked 118 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Purdue
Record: 15-1 | Elo: 1750.5 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.32 (ranked 2 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Rutgers
Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1525.1 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.58 (ranked 150 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
UCLA
Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1623.8 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.93 (ranked 47 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
USC
Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1604.8 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.18 (ranked 71 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Washington
Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1535.4 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.58 (ranked 53 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Wisconsin
Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1653.9 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.28 (ranked 44 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
