MAAC Update: Week 10

MAAC Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 8-9 | Elo: 1391.1 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.33 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1475.7 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.98 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iona

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1555.8 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.01 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Manhattan

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1441.9 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.61 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Marist

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1554.3 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.90 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Merrimack

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1553.4 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.25 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1477.0 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.06 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1374.7 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.04 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1590.9 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.13 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rider

Record: 1-14 | Elo: 1377.4 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.01 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1406.8 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.25 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Siena

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1491.2 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.20 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1489.8 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.56 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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