Mid-American Update: Week 10

Mid-American Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1648.7 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.01 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1373.5 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.41 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bowling Green

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1479.4 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.83 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1464.3 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.29 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cent Michigan

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1404.8 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.03 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

E Michigan

Record: 8-9 | Elo: 1457.5 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.92 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kent State

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1596.0 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.99 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 17-0 | Elo: 1646.1 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.42 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1331.7 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.84 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1518.2 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.44 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Toledo

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1532.3 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.54 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UMass

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1442.4 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.89 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1431.7 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.76 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

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