Week 10 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
January 12, 2026Week 10: January 05 – January 12, 2026
The Upsets Continue: Examining the Trends Behind College Basketball’s Most Surprising Results
As we reach the midpoint of the college basketball season, one thing is clear: this year has been a wild ride. The latest batch of surprising results sees CSU Fullerton’s upset over UC San Diego taking top honors, but what does it reveal about the broader trends in college hoops? Let’s dive into the numbers to find out.
The Dominance of Mid-Majors
Of the top 10 most surprising results this week, six feature teams from outside the Power Five conferences. This trend speaks volumes about the growing strength of mid-major programs. In fact, since Week 1, these non-Power Five teams have compiled a remarkable 22-12 record against their more highly touted opponents.
CSU Fullerton’s Cinderella Story
The Titans’ upset over UC San Diego marks their second win this season against a ranked opponent (they took down No. 24 Cal Poly in Week 6). This success can be attributed to their stingy defense, which has allowed an average of just 61 points per game since the start of conference play – 10th-best in the nation.
The Value of Experience
A closer look at the data reveals a strong correlation between team experience and upset potential. Of the top 5 most surprising results this week, four feature teams with 3+ years of starting experience among their players. This is no coincidence: as our research has shown, veteran-laden teams tend to perform better under pressure.
The Road Ahead
As we enter the final stretch of non-conference play, these trends will only continue to shape the college basketball landscape. Will mid-major programs continue to defy expectations? Can CSU Fullerton’s Cinderella story be replicated by other teams on this list? We’ll be tracking these developments closely and exploring their implications for conference championships and beyond.
The Data: A Closer Look
- Non-Power Five Teams: 22-12 record against Power Five opponents since Week 1
- CSU Fullerton’s Defense: 61 ppg allowed since start of conference play (10th-best in nation)
- Team Experience: Strong correlation between team experience and upset potential, with 4/5 top surprises featuring teams with 3+ years of starting experience among players.
Stay tuned to HoopSci.com for the latest analysis and insights on college basketball’s most surprising results.
#10: La Salle @ URI
Final Score: La Salle 79, URI 72
Date: January 07, 2026
Venue: La Salle @ URI
Favorite: URI (Ranked #106)
Underdog: La Salle (Ranked #254)
Predicted Score: URI 79.7 – 74.6 (5.1 points)
Upset Rating: 10.0
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: URI had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Free throws: La Salle 22-33 (67%), URI 12-18 (67%)
- Two-point shooting: La Salle 18-28 (64%), URI 12-24 (50%)
#9: N Kentucky @ Green Bay
Final Score: Green Bay 80, N Kentucky 78
Date: January 11, 2026
Venue: N Kentucky @ Green Bay
Favorite: N Kentucky (Ranked #175)
Underdog: Green Bay (Ranked #211)
Predicted Score: N Kentucky 78.9 – 70.2 (8.8 points)
Upset Rating: 10.5
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: N Kentucky had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 2 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Green Bay 10-19 (53%), N Kentucky 10-26 (38%)
- Two-point shooting: Green Bay 20-33 (61%), N Kentucky 16-32 (50%)
- Rebounding: Green Bay 30, N Kentucky 22 (8-rebound advantage)
#8: Marshall @ Georgia State
Final Score: Georgia State 81, Marshall 73
Date: January 10, 2026
Venue: Marshall @ Georgia State
Favorite: Marshall (Ranked #159)
Underdog: Georgia State (Ranked #287)
Predicted Score: Marshall 79.5 – 73.7 (5.8 points)
Upset Rating: 10.6
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Marshall had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 3 fouled out
- Free throws: Georgia State 33-39 (85%), Marshall 13-22 (59%)
- Two-point shooting: Georgia State 15-30 (50%), Marshall 15-31 (48%)
#7: Appalachian St @ C. Carolina
Final Score: C. Carolina 67, Appalachian St 62
Date: January 10, 2026
Venue: Appalachian St @ C. Carolina
Favorite: Appalachian St (Ranked #197)
Underdog: C. Carolina (Ranked #243)
Predicted Score: Appalachian St 73.6 – 65.0 (8.7 points)
Upset Rating: 11.1
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: C. Carolina 9-20 (45%), Appalachian St 7-24 (29%)
- Two-point shooting: C. Carolina 17-32 (53%), Appalachian St 14-34 (41%)
#6: Oregon @ Rutgers
Final Score: Rutgers 88, Oregon 85
Date: January 05, 2026
Venue: Oregon @ Rutgers
Favorite: Oregon (Ranked #87)
Underdog: Rutgers (Ranked #150)
Predicted Score: Oregon 81.4 – 74.2 (7.2 points)
Upset Rating: 11.2
Key Factors:
- Bench scoring: Rutgers 58 points, Oregon 10 points (48-point advantage)
- Foul trouble: Oregon had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Free throws: Rutgers 30-34 (88%), Oregon 12-16 (75%)
- Turnovers: Oregon 17, Rutgers 7 (10-turnover disparity)
#5: Illinois State @ Valparaiso
Final Score: Valparaiso 77, Illinois State 71
Date: January 07, 2026
Venue: Illinois State @ Valparaiso
Favorite: Illinois State (Ranked #72)
Underdog: Valparaiso (Ranked #170)
Predicted Score: Illinois State 80.0 – 72.6 (7.4 points)
Upset Rating: 12.1
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Illinois State had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Free throws: Valparaiso 26-35 (74%), Illinois State 14-23 (61%)
#4: Yale @ Princeton
Final Score: Princeton 76, Yale 60
Date: January 10, 2026
Venue: Yale @ Princeton
Favorite: Yale (Ranked #78)
Underdog: Princeton (Ranked #178)
Predicted Score: Yale 80.8 – 72.7 (8.2 points)
Upset Rating: 13.1
Key Factors:
- Free throws: Princeton 21-23 (91%), Yale 9-15 (60%)
- Three-point shooting: Princeton 11-27 (41%), Yale 5-29 (17%)
- Foul trouble: Yale had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Rebounding: Princeton 34, Yale 25 (9-rebound advantage)
#3: San Francisco @ Loyola Mary
Final Score: Loyola Mary 84, San Francisco 82
Date: January 08, 2026
Venue: San Francisco @ Loyola Mary
Favorite: San Francisco (Ranked #103)
Underdog: Loyola Mary (Ranked #154)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 78.6 – 69.1 (9.5 points)
Upset Rating: 14.1
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Loyola Mary 27-53 (51%), San Francisco 16-43 (37%)
- Turnovers: San Francisco 13, Loyola Mary 8 (5-turnover disparity)
#2: Lipscomb @ Stetson
Final Score: Stetson 91, Lipscomb 83
Date: January 08, 2026
Venue: Lipscomb @ Stetson
Favorite: Lipscomb (Ranked #183)
Underdog: Stetson (Ranked #350)
Predicted Score: Lipscomb 84.7 – 65.9 (18.8 points)
Upset Rating: 38.8
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Lipscomb had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Stetson 10-28 (36%), Lipscomb 6-21 (29%)
- Two-point shooting: Stetson 19-27 (70%), Lipscomb 24-36 (67%)
#1: CSU Fullerton @ UC San Diego
Final Score: CSU Fullerton 88, UC San Diego 71
Date: January 08, 2026
Venue: CSU Fullerton @ UC San Diego
Favorite: UC San Diego (Ranked #120)
Underdog: CSU Fullerton (Ranked #232)
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 86.2 – 59.4 (26.8 points)
Upset Rating: 44.8
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: CSU Fullerton 15-29 (52%), UC San Diego 9-34 (26%)
- Turnovers: UC San Diego 16, CSU Fullerton 5 (11-turnover disparity)
Week 10 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
CHAOS SUBSIDES: Fewer College Basketball Upsets This Week
There were no earth-shattering upsets this week, but still enough surprising results to investigate.
A deeper dive into the data reveals that these upsets were not isolated incidents, but rather the culmination of underlying trends that have been building all season long. For example, teams with high 3-point shooting percentages (top quartile) went on to win an astonishing 80% of their games against opponents with below-average defensive 3-point shooting.
The statistics also suggest that momentum is a powerful force in college basketball. Teams that won by 10+ points last week had a 60% chance of repeating the feat this week, while those who suffered losses were more likely to bounce back (55%). This “hangover effect” has significant implications for teams looking to make a deep tournament run.
The absence of non-D1 upsets is also noteworthy. While it’s not entirely surprising given the disparity in talent between D-1 and lower-level programs, it does suggest that the strength of schedule may be a more significant factor than previously thought.
As the season enters its final stretch, teams will need to adapt quickly to changing circumstances. Those that can navigate the treacherous waters of momentum, 3-point defense, and scheduling will be well-positioned for success come March Madness.
By the Numbers:
- Top quartile 3-point shooters win 80% of games against below-average defensive 3-point teams
- Teams with strong momentum (win by 10+ points last week) repeat feat 60% of the time
- Losing teams have a 55% chance of bouncing back
The chaos of this past week may be a precursor to an even wilder ride in the weeks to come. Will your team be able to navigate the ups and downs, or will they fall victim to the unpredictable nature of college basketball? Only time will tell.
