West Coast Update: Week 10

West Coast Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The West Coast enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for West Coast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Gonzaga

Record: 17-1 | Elo: 1753.3 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.71 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola Mary

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1502.8 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.19 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oregon State

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1484.7 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.40 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Pacific

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1416.1 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.54 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pepperdine

Record: 5-14 | Elo: 1359.3 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.21 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Portland

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1423.0 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.39 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Saint Mary’s

Record: 16-2 | Elo: 1728.5 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.72 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Diego

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1372.4 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.66 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

San Francisco

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1598.6 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.32 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Santa Clara

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1608.2 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.70 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Seattle

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1535.0 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.59 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Washington St

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1514.6 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.75 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As West Coast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWCC
TagsWCC West Coast Conference

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