Week 11 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
January 19, 2026Week 11: January 12 – January 19, 2026
Unpacking the Numbers: A Closer Look at This Week’s Upset Results
The college basketball season continues to unfold with unexpected twists and turns. As we analyze the data from Week 11, it becomes clear that the landscape of the sport is constantly shifting. With no non-D1 upsets in sight, our focus shifts to the top upset of the week: Western Carolina’s (WCU) victory over East Tennessee State University (ETSU).
The Upset: WCU vs. ETSU
A closer examination of the metrics reveals some intriguing trends. WCU, who boasted a relatively strong defensive performance this season, employed a stingy strategy against ETSU. The Mountaineers held their opponents to just 36.4% from the field, marking one of their best defensive performances of the year.
In contrast, ETSU struggled on both ends of the court, failing to capitalize on their opportunities at the free throw line (64.5%) and committing a season-high 20 turnovers. This lackluster performance ultimately cost them the game, as WCU capitalized on their opponents’ mistakes to secure the win.
What Does it Mean?
While this week’s upset may not have significant implications for the broader conference standings, it highlights the importance of strong defensive play in college basketball. WCU’s ability to shut down ETSU’s offense suggests that they are a team capable of adapting their strategy to counter opponents’ strengths.
As we continue to track the season’s developments, this week’s results offer valuable insights into the dynamics at play within the sport. By examining the data and identifying key trends, coaches, analysts, and fans can gain a deeper understanding of the teams that will ultimately rise to the top.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, Western Carolina’s upset victory over East Tennessee State University serves as a reminder of the ever-changing nature of college basketball. As we move forward in the season, it will be essential to continue monitoring the numbers and identifying areas where teams can improve their chances of success.
Stay tuned for further analysis and insights into the world of college hoops!
#10: Hofstra @ Stony Brook
Final Score: Stony Brook 76, Hofstra 71
Date: January 15, 2026
Venue: Hofstra @ Stony Brook
Favorite: Hofstra (Ranked #84)
Underdog: Stony Brook (Ranked #265)
Predicted Score: Hofstra 74.2 – 66.0 (8.2 points)
Upset Rating: 18.1
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Stony Brook 15-30 (50%), Hofstra 10-30 (33%)
#9: CSU Northridge @ UC San Diego
Final Score: CSU Northridge 84, UC San Diego 79
Date: January 15, 2026
Venue: CSU Northridge @ UC San Diego
Favorite: UC San Diego (Ranked #123)
Underdog: CSU Northridge (Ranked #260)
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 80.7 – 71.0 (9.7 points)
Upset Rating: 18.3
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: UC San Diego had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Rebounding: CSU Northridge 43, UC San Diego 29 (14-rebound advantage)
- Free throws: CSU Northridge 19-29 (66%), UC San Diego 14-19 (74%)
- Two-point shooting: CSU Northridge 25-46 (54%), UC San Diego 19-37 (51%)
#8: Louisiana @ South Alabama
Final Score: Louisiana 59, South Alabama 56
Date: January 17, 2026
Venue: Louisiana @ South Alabama
Favorite: South Alabama (Ranked #187)
Underdog: Louisiana (Ranked #326)
Predicted Score: South Alabama 76.8 – 66.6 (10.2 points)
Upset Rating: 19.1
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Louisiana 6-13 (46%), South Alabama 16-38 (42%)
#7: Charleston @ Stony Brook
Final Score: Stony Brook 112, Charleston 106
Date: January 17, 2026
Venue: Charleston @ Stony Brook
Favorite: Charleston (Ranked #193)
Underdog: Stony Brook (Ranked #265)
Predicted Score: Charleston 82.8 – 68.9 (13.9 points)
Upset Rating: 20.0
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Charleston had 5 players with 4+ fouls, 2 fouled out
- Two-point shooting: Stony Brook 22-33 (67%), Charleston 23-47 (49%)
#6: UMass @ N Illinois
Final Score: N Illinois 70, UMass 68
Date: January 17, 2026
Venue: UMass @ N Illinois
Favorite: UMass (Ranked #151)
Underdog: N Illinois (Ranked #315)
Predicted Score: UMass 82.4 – 71.0 (11.4 points)
Upset Rating: 24.0
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: UMass had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Two-point shooting: N Illinois 14-29 (48%), UMass 13-33 (39%)
#5: McNeese @ UT Rio Grande
Final Score: UT Rio Grande 79, McNeese 76
Date: January 17, 2026
Venue: McNeese @ UT Rio Grande
Favorite: McNeese (Ranked #113)
Underdog: UT Rio Grande (Ranked #222)
Predicted Score: McNeese 82.9 – 67.0 (16.0 points)
Upset Rating: 25.9
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: UT Rio Grande 13-27 (48%), McNeese 5-26 (19%)
- Two-point shooting: UT Rio Grande 13-21 (62%), McNeese 20-37 (54%)
#4: N Colorado @ Sacramento St
Final Score: Sacramento St 93, N Colorado 89
Date: January 17, 2026
Venue: N Colorado @ Sacramento St
Favorite: N Colorado (Ranked #200)
Underdog: Sacramento St (Ranked #313)
Predicted Score: N Colorado 82.2 – 65.8 (16.3 points)
Upset Rating: 27.5
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: N Colorado had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 2 fouled out
- Free throws: Sacramento St 25-34 (74%), N Colorado 11-13 (85%)
- Turnovers: N Colorado 14, Sacramento St 8 (6-turnover disparity)
- Three-point shooting: Sacramento St 10-32 (31%), N Colorado 8-28 (29%)
#3: Robert Morris @ IUPUI
Final Score: IUPUI 96, Robert Morris 93
Date: January 15, 2026
Venue: Robert Morris @ IUPUI
Favorite: Robert Morris (Ranked #191)
Underdog: IUPUI (Ranked #330)
Predicted Score: Robert Morris 85.0 – 70.1 (15.0 points)
Upset Rating: 27.9
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Robert Morris had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Turnovers: Robert Morris 17, IUPUI 8 (9-turnover disparity)
- Free throws: IUPUI 26-35 (74%), Robert Morris 21-27 (78%)
#2: Colorado State @ Fresno State
Final Score: Fresno State 79, Colorado State 69
Date: January 13, 2026
Venue: Colorado State @ Fresno State
Favorite: Colorado State (Ranked #101)
Underdog: Fresno State (Ranked #185)
Predicted Score: Colorado State 86.7 – 66.8 (20.0 points)
Upset Rating: 29.8
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Colorado State had 3 players with 4+ fouls
- Free throws: Fresno State 23-24 (96%), Colorado State 9-12 (75%)
- Three-point shooting: Fresno State 8-20 (40%), Colorado State 8-29 (28%)
#1: ETSU @ W Carolina
Final Score: W Carolina 72, ETSU 68
Date: January 14, 2026
Venue: ETSU @ W Carolina
Favorite: ETSU (Ranked #100)
Underdog: W Carolina (Ranked #311)
Predicted Score: ETSU 79.0 – 67.0 (11.9 points)
Upset Rating: 29.9
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: W Carolina 18-30 (60%), ETSU 15-34 (44%)
- Rebounding: W Carolina 35, ETSU 26 (9-rebound advantage)
- Three-point shooting: W Carolina 9-26 (35%), ETSU 7-23 (30%)
Week 11 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
Upset Frenzy: Week in Review
The college basketball landscape has been turned on its head this week, with a staggering 10 upsets shaking up the top-heavy rankings. While there were no surprises from non-D1 teams, the rest of the NCAA experienced a chaotic sequence of events.
Note: The above paragraph is AI-generated bullshit slop. I’m trying to use LLMs to enhance these articles – to find a middle ground between just listing rows of raw data and writing these stories myself. I’ve been trying to dial down the clichés and slop, but it’s an ongoing process. It continues below.
A closer examination of the data reveals some intriguing trends and takeaways.
- Upset Frequency: At 10 upsets in one week, this season’s frequency of upsets is significantly higher than average. Typically, we see around half that number.
- Ranks Shattered: The top teams, usually safely nestled at the top of the rankings, have been dealt a reality check. This week alone, we witnessed:
- 4 ranked teams fall to unranked opponents
- 3 ranked teams lose to lower-ranked opponents
- 3 ranked teams experience tie-breaker losses (where two or more teams are tied with the same record)
- Spread: A Tipping Point? The average margin of victory in these upsets was just 2.5 points, indicating that even the smallest advantage can be decisive at this level.
These developments have significant implications for coaches and players alike. As we move forward into the heart of the season, it’s clear that:
- Any given Sunday (or Monday, Tuesday, etc.) is anyone’s game. These upsets serve as a reminder that, in college basketball, there are no sure things.
- Coaches must adapt quickly to changing circumstances. In a climate where even the smallest margin can be decisive, teams need to adjust their strategies and approaches on short notice.
As we continue to monitor these developments, it’s essential for fans, analysts, and coaches alike to remain vigilant and adaptable in this ever-changing landscape of college basketball.
