Big 12 Update: Week 12
January 26, 2026Big 12 Mid-Season Analysis: Momentum Shifts and Performance Trends
As we enter Week 12 of the college basketball season, the Big 12 conference presents an intriguing dynamic, with various teams exhibiting distinct performance trends. This analysis leverages MACD indicators to examine each team’s momentum, providing valuable insights into their current standing and future prospects.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators are a technical tool used to measure momentum in stock prices, but also apply to sports data. They help identify changes in a team’s performance trajectory by comparing the difference between its two moving averages. In this context, we’ll use MACD indicators to analyze the Big 12 teams’ momentum.
Baylor’s Momentum Shift
Baylor stands out for its diverse set of trends, both positive and negative. On the one hand, the Bears are showing signs of improvement on offense with a strongly trending up off-rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.354). This upward momentum is indicative of their growing ability to secure second-chance opportunities.
Conversely, Baylor’s turnover trend paints a different picture. The team is experiencing a significant increase in turnovers (Season Avg: 0.158), which could hinder its chances on the court. Rising turnovers not only reduce scoring opportunities but also create unforced mistakes that opponents can capitalize on.
Kansas State and Kansas’ Defensive Improvement
Kansas State and Kansas exhibit promising defensive trends, with both teams demonstrating strongly trending down turnover averages (Season Averages: 0.158 for Kansas State, 0.142 for Kansas). This decline suggests a heightened sense of discipline and ball control, which can limit opponents’ scoring opportunities.
Baylor’s Defensive Dilemma
Baylor’s performance is also noteworthy on the defensive end. The team faces a concerning trend of increased opponent shooting averages (Season Avg: 0.51), which indicates a potential vulnerability in its defense. Moreover, Baylor’s decline in opponent turnovers (Season Avg: 0.145) may signal a difficulty in forcing turnovers and creating unforced errors.
Kansas’ Defensive Woes
Kansas faces challenges on both ends of the court. While it has shown improvement in turnover prevention (trending down), the team’s defense is struggling with rebounding efficiency, evidenced by its downward trend in defensive rebound percentage (Season Avg: 0.736).
This analysis reveals a complex Big 12 landscape, where teams are experiencing distinct momentum shifts and performance trends. As we navigate Week 12, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for predicting the conference’s next moves and outcomes.
By examining MACD indicators and focusing on key statistics, this article aims to provide an in-depth look at the current state of play in the Big 12 conference, offering valuable insights into each team’s performance trajectory.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Cincinnati
Team-by-Team Analysis
Arizona
Record: 20-0 | Elo: 1776.0 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.25 (ranked 3 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Arizona State
Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1521.5 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.64 (ranked 100 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
BYU
Record: 17-2 | Elo: 1723.0 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.64 (ranked 15 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Baylor
Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1597.0 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.75 (ranked 74 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Cincinnati
Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1548.0 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.13 (ranked 92 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Colorado
Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1539.0 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.74 (ranked 85 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Houston
Record: 17-2 | Elo: 1815.8 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.30 (ranked 5 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Iowa State
Record: 18-2 | Elo: 1729.1 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.40 (ranked 9 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Kansas
Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1686.8 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.12 (ranked 13 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Kansas State
Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1526.7 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.98 (ranked 99 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Oklahoma State
Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1569.5 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.30 (ranked 108 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
TCU
Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1584.0 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.77 (ranked 45 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Texas Tech
Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1732.2 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.81 (ranked 29 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
UCF
Record: 15-4 | Elo: 1626.7 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.00 (ranked 55 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Utah
Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1501.7 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.94 (ranked 136 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
West Virginia
Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1578.6 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.52 (ranked 49 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Big 12 Teams Analyzed Through Key Offense and Defense Metrics
As we conclude our analysis of Week 12 in the Big 12, we’re focusing on trends that reveal improvements or declines in performance across key metrics. Here’s what stands out:
Offensive Trends:
- Baylor: The Bears’ turnover rate has worsened this season, trending upwards at an average of 0.158 turnovers per game. This could be a cause for concern.
- Iowa State: Iowa State’s offense rebounding percentage (Off Reb Pct) has improved steadily throughout the season, now trending up at an average of 34.5%. This metric measures the percentage of available rebounds secured by a team on offense.
Defensive Trends:
- Baylor: Unfortunately for Baylor, their defensive performance has taken a hit on several fronts. Their opponent’s shooting percentage (Opp Shooting) has worsened this season, trending up at 51.0%. Additionally, their opponent’s turnover count has decreased, averaging 7.45 turnovers per game.
- Kansas: The Jayhawks are also facing issues defensively, with an upward trend in their opponent’s turnover count averaging 12.1 turnovers per game.
These findings suggest that while some teams like Iowa State are working to improve their offense rebounding percentage, others like Baylor may need to reevaluate certain strategies given the worsening trends on their end.
Conclusion:
The provided data offers valuable insights into Big 12 team performances this season. As we continue to monitor these metrics and how they evolve over time, we can better understand which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
