Big Ten Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Big Ten Mid-Season Trends: A Closer Look

As we enter Week 12 of the college basketball season, the Big Ten Conference has teams exhibiting diverse performance trends. This analysis uses Shooting Efficiency Momentum (SEM) and Turnover Rate Momentum (TRM) indicators to examine each team’s momentum and identify areas where they’re headed.

Offensive Trends

Michigan: Michigan’s offense is improving, driven by a significant increase in shooting efficiency (SEM: Strongly Up), indicating improvement.
Michigan State: The Spartans’ shooting has seen an upward trend, with a season average of 0.54 (SEM: Strongly Up), signifying improvement.
Minnesota: A decline in turnovers reflects Minnesota’s strengthening offense, averaging 14.56 turnovers per game this season (TRM: Down).
Ohio State: Ohio State’s shooting efficiency has seen an upward trend, with a season average of 0.49 (SEM: Up), suggesting improvement.
Purdue: Purdue’s offense is showing signs of improvement, driven by a decline in turnover rate (TRM: Down).

Defensive Trends

Indiana: Opponents are turning the ball over more frequently against Indiana, with an upward trend in opponents’ turnover rate (TRM: Up), indicating worsening defensive performance.
Michigan State: Michigan State’s defense has seen a significant improvement in defensive rebound percentage, suggesting strength on the glass (Def Reb Pct: Strongly Up).
Wisconsin: Wisconsin’s defense is showing signs of deterioration, with an upward trend in opponents’ shooting percentages (Opp Shooting: Up).
Iowa: Iowa’s defense is struggling, as evidenced by their decreasing defensive rebound percentage (Down).

These trends highlight key areas where Big Ten teams are excelling or struggling. As we approach the midpoint of the season, these momentum indicators can inform coaches and fans alike about which teams are poised for success and which may need to adjust their strategies.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
Trending Down (Efficiency): Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 17-3 | Elo: 1716.1 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.97 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Indiana

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1602.1 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.15 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1610.2 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.35 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Maryland

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1571.1 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.66 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 18-1 | Elo: 1736.2 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.76 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Michigan State

Record: 18-2 | Elo: 1755.6 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.67 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Minnesota

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1506.5 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.52 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 20-0 | Elo: 1714.4 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.68 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1521.9 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.62 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1600.8 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.64 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1569.8 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.84 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1501.5 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.27 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 17-3 | Elo: 1737.9 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.15 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1505.2 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.92 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UCLA

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1641.2 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.35 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

USC

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1602.5 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.07 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Washington

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.20 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Wisconsin

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1660.7 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.36 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big Ten Week 12 Review: Teams on the Rise and Fall

As the Big Ten season continues, several teams are experiencing notable trends in their performance. Analyzing internal data reveals which teams are building momentum and which are struggling to maintain their early-season success.

On offense, some teams have demonstrated concerning trends:

Iowa’s turnover rate has taken a significant turn for the worse (Season Avg: 0.15, Trend: Up). This indicates that the team is experiencing difficulties with ball security.
In contrast, Maryland has seen its turnover count decline strongly (Season Avg: 0.16399999999999998, Trend: Down), which could be an important factor in their continued winning ways.

On defense, several teams have shown concerning trends:

Indiana’s performance against opponents’ turnovers has taken a step back (Season Avg: 0.151, Trend: Down). This decline in ability to force turnovers may pose concerns for the team.
Maryland’s defense has also been struggling to limit opponent shooting and turnovers.

Examining the data further reveals that Michigan is making strides in securing rebounds offensively (Off Reb Pct: Season Avg: 0.345, Trend: Up), while Michigan State’s shooting percentage continues its upward trajectory (Season Avg: 0.54, Trend: Up). These trends indicate that both teams are gaining momentum.

Meanwhile, Indiana and Maryland have seen their defensive rebounding percentages decline strongly (Def Reb Pct: Season Avg: 0.728, Trend: Down), putting them in a challenging position moving forward.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference