Horizon Update: Week 13

Horizon Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1477.0 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.73 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 9-12 | Elo: 1366.2 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.69 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1407.7 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.04 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

IUPUI

Record: 6-18 | Elo: 1298.2 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.64 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1471.0 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.06 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

N Kentucky

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1499.3 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.14 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1566.9 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.31 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1538.3 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.20 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1528.8 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.86 (ranked 196 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wright State

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1526.7 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.58 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Youngstown St

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1475.1 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.94 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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