Ohio Valley Update: Week 13

Ohio Valley Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Ohio Valley enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ohio Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Illinois

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1373.3 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.70 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Lindenwood

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1456.3 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.35 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Little Rock

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1453.3 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.85 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Morehead State

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1465.9 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.86 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SE Missouri St

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1490.2 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.80 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SIUE

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1505.4 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.46 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern Indiana

Record: 5-17 | Elo: 1289.2 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.90 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Tenn Tech

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1369.1 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.84 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tennessee St

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1523.7 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.42 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

UT Martin

Record: 17-5 | Elo: 1523.1 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.50 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

W Illinois

Record: 4-19 | Elo: 1304.3 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -32.96 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ohio Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryOVC
TagsOhio Valley Ohio Valley Conference OVC

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