Southland Update: Week 13

Southland Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1345.5 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.97 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1376.3 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.13 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1471.7 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.67 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 18-4 | Elo: 1663.1 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.07 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1371.9 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.38 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Nicholls

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1470.1 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.42 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 6-15 | Elo: 1394.0 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.96 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 6-16 | Elo: 1403.2 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.84 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 19-3 | Elo: 1570.2 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.14 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1485.7 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.20 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1341.6 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.92 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1433.8 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.79 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC
TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference

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