Summit League Update: Week 13

Summit League Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Summit League enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Summit League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Denver

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1386.8 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.68 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

North Dakota

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1455.6 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.37 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

North Dakota St

Record: 19-5 | Elo: 1610.5 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.34 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Omaha

Record: 9-12 | Elo: 1487.1 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.25 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Oral Roberts

Record: 5-19 | Elo: 1304.7 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.54 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

South Dakota

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1446.3 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.78 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

South Dakota St

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1505.0 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.01 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

St. Thomas – Minnesota

Record: 18-6 | Elo: 1585.4 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.45 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UM Kansas City

Record: 3-19 | Elo: 1313.9 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.05 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Summit League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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