America East Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The America East enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Albany, Maine, UNH, Bryant, NJIT
Trending Down (Efficiency): Binghamton, UMass Lowell, UMBC, Vermont

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1389.1 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.30 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Binghamton

Record: 3-20 | Elo: 1323.2 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.96 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Bryant

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1453.7 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.55 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Maine

Record: 6-19 | Elo: 1405.1 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.17 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

NJIT

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1419.9 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.76 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UMBC

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1463.2 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.93 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UMass Lowell

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1447.2 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.29 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UNH

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1391.5 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.53 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Vermont

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1560.0 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.77 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As America East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East

TagsAEC America East America East Conference