Horizon Update: Week 14

Horizon Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1474.2 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.08 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1375.4 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.17 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1428.9 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.08 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

IUPUI

Record: 7-18 | Elo: 1310.7 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.70 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 9-17 | Elo: 1449.2 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.88 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

N Kentucky

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1490.8 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.02 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1557.2 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.32 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1516.6 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.36 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1547.5 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.00 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1526.8 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.39 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1477.9 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.15 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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