Missouri Valley Update: Week 14

Missouri Valley Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 22-3 | Elo: 1692.5 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.22 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Bradley

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1624.2 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.99 (ranked 125 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Drake

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1597.2 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.79 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 5-19 | Elo: 1363.5 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.24 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Illinois State

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1571.1 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.25 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Indiana State

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1479.2 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.50 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1580.9 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.72 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1562.1 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.48 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1476.9 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.19 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UIC

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1505.1 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.33 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Valparaiso

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1466.2 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.57 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

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