Big Ten Update: Week 15

Big Ten Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Top Offensive Trends in the Big Ten

The current data reveals key takeaways from the conference:

  • Illinois’ turnover rate is improving, contributing to their recent success on offense versus stronger competition. However, they have been struggling against weaker teams to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  • Iowa’s shooting has worsened, negatively impacting their scoring output versus stronger competition. This trend needs to be addressed to boost their performance.
  • Michigan’s turnover rate and shooting are improving, helping the team maintain possession and create more scoring chances. Their performance is still marred by inconsistencies against weaker teams.
  • Maryland’s lack of scoring opportunities due to turnovers versus stronger competition indicates a problem that needs to be addressed.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Big Ten Defensive Trends: A Closer Look

As we approach Week 15 of the college basketball season, several teams in the Big Ten are exhibiting notable defensive trends. Here are the top trends to keep an eye on:

  • Indiana’s Problem with Opponent Turnovers Versus Stronger Competition: The Hoosiers are struggling to force turnovers against stronger competition, allowing opponents to maintain possession and potentially capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  • Illinois’s Struggle with Defensive Rebounding Percentage (Def Reb Pct) versus Weaker Competition: Illinois is giving up too many rebounds on the defensive end versus weaker competition, leading to second-chance opportunities for opposing teams.
  • Iowa’s Improving Opponent Shooting Performance: The Hawkeyes are tightening up their defense versus stronger competition, making it more difficult for opponents to score from the field.
  • Michigan’s Problem with Forcing Turnovers (Opp Turnovers) Versus Weaker Competition: The Wolverines are having trouble forcing turnovers against weaker competition, allowing opponents to maintain possession and potentially create scoring opportunities.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 21-5 | Elo: 1718.2 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.15 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Indiana

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1627.6 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.73 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1624.0 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.92 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Maryland

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1562.3 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.49 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 24-1 | Elo: 1777.0 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +43.09 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Michigan State

Record: 20-5 | Elo: 1732.3 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.70 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Minnesota

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1490.7 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.60 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Nebraska

Record: 22-3 | Elo: 1693.8 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.02 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 10-16 | Elo: 1499.5 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.76 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1602.2 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.85 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1545.5 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.55 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1493.3 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.62 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 21-4 | Elo: 1759.8 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.83 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Rutgers

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1493.0 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.19 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UCLA

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1642.3 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.55 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

USC

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1610.4 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.56 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Washington

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1514.5 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.74 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1685.0 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.78 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big Ten Wrap-Up: Trends to Watch in Week 15

As we conclude our analysis of Week 15, several key trends emerge across the Big Ten conference, providing valuable insights into each team’s performance.

Offensive Trends

Illinois has demonstrated a strong downward trend in turnovers versus weaker competition. With an average of 0.13 turnover per game versus weaker competition, they are improving their efficiency. This improvement could be attributed to better ball control and decision-making.

In contrast, Indiana is struggling on offense, particularly in rebounding efficiency versus stronger competition. Their offensive rebound percentage (ORB%) has trended downward, indicating that they are allowing more boards on the defensive end versus weaker competition. This is a concern for Indiana’s scoring ability.

Iowa’s shooting performance has also declined versus stronger competition, with their season average showing a strongly trending decrease. While this may not seem directly impactful, it can contribute to a team’s overall scoring woes.

Defensive Trends

Indiana is facing challenges on the defensive side, struggling to force turnovers versus weaker competition. Their inability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes has worsened over time, allowing opposing teams to take advantage of their inefficiencies.

Iowa’s defense has taken a hit, particularly in opponent shooting efficiency versus stronger competition. Their season average shows a strongly trending increase, suggesting that they are allowing more scoring opportunities for their opponents.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G
TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference

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