Atlantic 10 Update: Week 16

Atlantic 10 Update: Week 16

February 23, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Atlantic 10 Week 16 Offense Report

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, several teams are exhibiting notable trends on offense in the Atlantic 10 conference.

Here are the top 4 strongest offensive trends:

  • – Duquesne’s Shooting and Off Reb Pct are Worsening: Struggling with both shooting accuracy versus stronger competition and rebounding prowess, hindering their scoring ability.
  • Davidson’s Off Reb Pct is Improving: Contributing to their strong overall performance versus weaker competition.
  • Fordham’s Off Reb Pct is Worsening: Experiencing a decline in rebounding efficacy, affecting their efficiency versus stronger competition.
  • – Duquesne’s Shooting and Off Reb Pct are Worsening: Struggling with both shooting accuracy and rebounding prowess, hindering their scoring ability versus weaker competition.

Strongest Defensive Trends

• Duquesne’s defensive rebounding versus stronger competition has been a challenge, allowing opponents to secure more boards against weaker teams.
• Fordham is improving in forcing turnovers from opponents versus weaker competition, stifling their offense.
• G Washington and George Mason are struggling to force turnovers from opponents versus stronger competition.
• La Salle’s opponent shooting has worsened overall, resulting in a struggle to contain scoring threats.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1516.1 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.78 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Dayton

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1632.2 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.89 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1538.0 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.27 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Fordham

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1476.8 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.98 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

G Washington

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1523.5 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.66 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

George Mason

Record: 21-6 | Elo: 1639.6 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.10 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1416.4 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.89 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 6-22 | Elo: 1445.4 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.14 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Richmond

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1472.6 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.24 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1579.1 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.51 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 25-2 | Elo: 1674.5 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.15 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1516.7 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.84 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

URI

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1510.7 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.44 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

VCU

Record: 21-7 | Elo: 1691.5 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.00 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic 10 Teams’ Momentum Shifts in Week 16 Analysis

As the Atlantic 10 conference continues to heat up, data-driven insights provide a clearer picture of which teams are genuinely improving and which are experiencing unsustainable momentum. Our analysis focuses on key trends in offense and defense.

Offensive Trends:

Davidson’s rebounding efficiency has been steadily increasing versus weaker competition (0.276), indicating a strengthening performance that can be attributed to the team’s ability to secure more rebounds, a crucial aspect of scoring opportunities.

Duquesne is struggling with a decline in shooting percentage and offensive rebounding percentage versus stronger competition (0.342). These downward trends signal a problem for the team as they struggle to convert shots into points and secure second-chance opportunities.

Fordham’s offense has also been negatively affected by a downward trend in rebounding efficiency versus stronger competition (0.286), further exacerbating their scoring challenges.

Defensive Trends:

Duquesne’s defensive prowess is waning versus weaker competition, particularly in terms of defensive rebounding percentage (0.718). This decline allows opponents to secure more rebounds and limit the team’s chances of securing possessions.

Fordham has seen an improvement in forcing turnovers from opposing teams versus stronger competition (0.173), indicating a more effective defense that is capable of disrupting opponents’ momentum.

Dayton’s defensive performance has been marred by a decline in rebounding efficiency versus weaker competition (0.276). This decline suggests that opponents are capitalizing on scoring opportunities and limiting their chances to secure rebounds.

The MACD trending indicators serve as a valuable tool for identifying genuine improvements versus unsustainable trends, allowing us to better understand the dynamics at play within each team and anticipate potential future developments.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10
TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference

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