Atlantic 10 Update: Week 16

Atlantic 10 Update: Week 16

February 23, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Davidson, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.034 – Davidson’s defensive rebounding efforts have improved significantly, limiting opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities.
  2. Fordham, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Fordham’s struggle with securing defensive rebounds has hindered their ability to maintain possession and generate scoring opportunities, contributing to their overall performance struggles in this area.
  3. Duquesne, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Duquesne’s inability to secure crucial rebounds and maintain possession poses a significant problem for their overall defensive strategy, as their struggles with securing rebounds continue to hinder their performance.
  4. George Mason, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – George Mason’s offense has suffered due to a recent decline in their shooting, which has hindered their overall performance on the court.
  5. Duquesne, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Duquesne’s shooting struggles, which are evident in their trend of declining shooting performance, pose a significant problem hindering their ability to find rhythm on offense and maintain consistency in their game plan.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. George Mason, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – The opposition’s proficient marksmanship has been hindering George Mason’s progress as they struggle to contain the opposition’s sharp shooting ability on their home court.
  2. Duquesne, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Duquesne struggles to limit opponents’ access to rebounds on defense over time, specifically in terms of rebound percentage, which presents a significant problem to the team’s overall defensive performance due to its impact on limiting second-chance opportunities and maintaining possessions.
  3. Fordham, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Fordham’s defense has become a major problem for opposing offenses, consistently forcing turnovers and disrupting their ability to execute plays effectively.
  4. George Mason, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – George Mason’s defense has been struggling to effectively stifle opponents’ offenses, particularly in forcing turnovers, which hinders their ability to navigate conference play against stiff competition.
  5. G Washington, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – The G Washington team’s inability to effectively disrupt their opponents’ passing lanes and force turnovers on defense presents a significant concern for their overall defensive strategy.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1516.1 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.78 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Dayton

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1632.2 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.89 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1538.0 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.27 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Fordham

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1476.8 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.98 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

G Washington

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1523.5 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.66 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

George Mason

Record: 21-6 | Elo: 1639.6 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.10 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1416.4 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.89 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 6-22 | Elo: 1445.4 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.14 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Richmond

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1472.6 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.24 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1579.1 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.51 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 25-2 | Elo: 1674.5 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.15 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1516.7 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.84 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

URI

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1510.7 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.44 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

VCU

Record: 21-7 | Elo: 1691.5 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.00 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic 10 Week 16 Analysis: Trends and Takeaways

As the Atlantic 10 conference continues to heat up, our analysis of key offensive and defensive trends reveals some intriguing storylines. By examining the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) trending indicators, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Watch

  1. Davidson’s Rebounding Surge: The Wildcats’ offense has seen a notable uptick in rebounding percentage, with an upward trend contributing significantly to their scoring prowess.
  2. Dayton’s Shooting Struggles: The Flyers are struggling to find their shooting rhythm, trending downwards from the season average of 0.54 in shooting percentage, which is a problem for this team.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

  1. Fordham’s Turnover Forcing Ability: Fordham has seen an improvement in forcing turnovers, with a strong upward trend in opponent turnovers per game.
  2. Duquesne’s Defensive Lapse: The Dukes’ defense has been vulnerable on the boards, allowing more offensive rebounds with a downward trend in defensive rebounding percentage.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10
TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference

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