Week 16 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
February 23, 2026Week 16: February 16 – February 23, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 7.1 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 6 games decided by 5 points or less and 2 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #252 San Jose State.
These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.
#10: S Illinois @ Northern Iowa
Final Score: S Illinois 59, Northern Iowa 57
Date: February 21, 2026
Venue: S Illinois @ Northern Iowa
Favorite: Northern Iowa (Ranked #79)
Underdog: S Illinois (Ranked #118)
Predicted Score: Northern Iowa 77.1 – 70.8 (6.3 points)
Upset Rating: 10.1
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: S Illinois 6-16 (38%), Northern Iowa 4-17 (24%)
- Two-point shooting: S Illinois 20-35 (57%), Northern Iowa 19-35 (54%)
#9: Drexel @ Stony Brook
Final Score: Stony Brook 72, Drexel 69
Date: February 16, 2026
Venue: Drexel @ Stony Brook
Favorite: Drexel (Ranked #190)
Underdog: Stony Brook (Ranked #227)
Predicted Score: Drexel 76.6 – 67.0 (9.6 points)
Upset Rating: 11.7
Key Factors:
- Turnovers: Drexel 16, Stony Brook 5 (11-turnover disparity)
- Free throws: Stony Brook 16-19 (84%), Drexel 8-10 (80%)
#8: Marshall @ C. Carolina
Final Score: C. Carolina 79, Marshall 75
Date: February 21, 2026
Venue: Marshall @ C. Carolina
Favorite: Marshall (Ranked #161)
Underdog: C. Carolina (Ranked #213)
Predicted Score: Marshall 77.4 – 67.8 (9.5 points)
Upset Rating: 12.3
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Marshall had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Free throws: C. Carolina 24-34 (71%), Marshall 16-18 (89%)
- Three-point shooting: C. Carolina 7-23 (30%), Marshall 5-20 (25%)
- Two-point shooting: C. Carolina 17-38 (45%), Marshall 22-51 (43%)
#7: W Kentucky @ Liberty
Final Score: W Kentucky 94, Liberty 73
Date: February 21, 2026
Venue: W Kentucky @ Liberty
Favorite: Liberty (Ranked #93)
Underdog: W Kentucky (Ranked #187)
Predicted Score: Liberty 80.0 – 69.6 (10.5 points)
Upset Rating: 16.1
Key Factors:
- Free throws: W Kentucky 22-23 (96%), Liberty 17-29 (59%)
- Three-point shooting: W Kentucky 10-21 (48%), Liberty 6-21 (29%)
- Rebounding: W Kentucky 33, Liberty 19 (14-rebound advantage, 10 offensive)
#6: Florida State @ Clemson
Final Score: Florida State 70, Clemson 65
Date: February 21, 2026
Venue: Florida State @ Clemson
Favorite: Clemson (Ranked #32)
Underdog: Florida State (Ranked #78)
Predicted Score: Clemson 79.7 – 70.4 (9.3 points)
Upset Rating: 17.1
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Florida State 10-24 (42%), Clemson 10-33 (30%)
- Two-point shooting: Florida State 13-22 (59%), Clemson 11-23 (48%)
#5: Bradley @ Valparaiso
Final Score: Valparaiso 79, Bradley 72
Date: February 18, 2026
Venue: Bradley @ Valparaiso
Favorite: Bradley (Ranked #107)
Underdog: Valparaiso (Ranked #143)
Predicted Score: Bradley 82.1 – 69.5 (12.6 points)
Upset Rating: 18.5
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Bradley had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Free throws: Valparaiso 20-33 (61%), Bradley 12-17 (71%)
- Two-point shooting: Valparaiso 19-35 (54%), Bradley 12-28 (43%)
#4: Nevada @ San Jose State
Final Score: San Jose State 87, Nevada 71
Date: February 17, 2026
Venue: Nevada @ San Jose State
Favorite: Nevada (Ranked #92)
Underdog: San Jose State (Ranked #252)
Predicted Score: Nevada 77.7 – 68.1 (9.5 points)
Upset Rating: 19.3
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: San Jose State 15-29 (52%), Nevada 3-20 (15%)
- Foul trouble: Nevada had 2 players with 4+ fouls
#3: Auburn @ Miss St
Final Score: Miss St 91, Auburn 85
Date: February 18, 2026
Venue: Auburn @ Miss St
Favorite: Auburn (Ranked #42)
Underdog: Miss St (Ranked #98)
Predicted Score: Auburn 86.3 – 74.2 (12.0 points)
Upset Rating: 21.6
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Auburn had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Two-point shooting: Miss St 15-32 (47%), Auburn 12-36 (33%)
- Three-point shooting: Miss St 16-30 (53%), Auburn 12-26 (46%)
#2: St. Thomas – Minnesota @ Denver
Final Score: Denver 82, St. Thomas – Minnesota 80
Date: February 21, 2026
Venue: St. Thomas – Minnesota @ Denver
Favorite: St. Thomas – Minnesota (Ranked #109)
Underdog: Denver (Ranked #231)
Predicted Score: St. Thomas – Minnesota 84.2 – 70.4 (13.8 points)
Upset Rating: 23.9
Key Factors:
- Free throws: Denver 17-20 (85%), St. Thomas – Minnesota 8-20 (40%)
- Foul trouble: St. Thomas – Minnesota had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Denver 11-29 (38%), St. Thomas – Minnesota 8-22 (36%)
#1: Texas Tech @ Arizona State
Final Score: Arizona State 72, Texas Tech 67
Date: February 17, 2026
Venue: Texas Tech @ Arizona State
Favorite: Texas Tech (Ranked #25)
Underdog: Arizona State (Ranked #84)
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 84.7 – 69.0 (15.6 points)
Upset Rating: 29.3
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Texas Tech had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Turnovers: Texas Tech 16, Arizona State 9 (7-turnover disparity)
Week 16 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
College basketball fans witnessed a tumultuous week, with 10 upsets that defied expectations. The average margin of victory was a relatively slim 7.1 points versus stronger competition, indicating that many games were decided by a narrow margin.
Notably, six out of ten upsets went to the wire, with a total of 6 games decided by 5 points or less. This trend suggests that teams are struggling to establish dominance and secure comfortable leads versus weaker competition. Conversely, there were two blowouts, where one team emerged victorious by 15 points or more versus stronger competition.
A few matchups stand out as particularly significant. Specifically, Game #252: San Jose State’s upset over a lower-ranked team with a margin of victory of 16 points is notable, especially considering it was a significant win for the lower-ranked team versus stronger competition. Conversely, Game #84: Arizona State’s upset over Texas Tech showcases the challenges that higher-ranked teams face versus weaker competition.
The data also reveals that some teams are struggling to contain opponents from outside their conference versus stronger competition. For instance, Game #213: C. Carolina edged out Marshall by four points, while Game #231: Denver narrowly defeated St. Thomas – Minnesota by two points. These results may signal a trend where teams struggle against weaker competition from within and outside their own conference.
The week’s upsets demonstrate that even the most seemingly lopsided matchups can be turned on their head. As the season unfolds, teams will need to adapt and refine their strategies to mitigate the effects of these surprises. For now, it appears that college basketball remains a realm where anything can happen, and teams must be prepared for the unexpected.
