ACC Update: Week 16

ACC Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Florida State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Florida State’s defensive glass performance has been a struggle, as opponents are consistently collecting more of their team’s rebounds than expected, which may be contributing to their scoring efficiency this season.
  2. Florida State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Florida State’s improvement in shooting from beyond the arc has led to increased scoring opportunities, contributing to a notable improvement in overall performance this season.
  3. Florida State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Florida State’s struggles with turnovers have been a significant problem, as they average over 3 interceptions per game, hindering their overall performance and contributing to losses.
  4. Louisville, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – The Louisville team’s inability to maintain control of the ball is a major issue that is contributing to their stalled momentum and overall performance.
  5. NC State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.006 – NC State’s reduced rate of turnovers poses a challenge for their offense, as sustaining this trend will be crucial to maintaining their scoring efficiency and overall team performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Clemson, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.028 – Clemson’s stifling defense is creating significant shooting difficulties for their opponents, making it increasingly challenging for them to score.
  2. Boston College, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.027 – Boston College’s stifling offense has created difficulties for opposing teams in finding their shooting groove.
  3. Clemson, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Clemson’s defense has shown improvement in securing rebounds, averaging 32.7 defensive rebounds per game so far this season, which has led to a greater level of control over possession on the court.
  4. Duke, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Duke’s defense has struggled to force turnovers against ACC opponents, negatively impacting their ability to create scoring opportunities and control possession.
  5. Boston College, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Boston College’s defense has been struggling to force turnovers in recent games, which has hindered their ability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes by limiting their scoring opportunities and creating momentum shifts in favor of opposing teams.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1412.2 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.06 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Cal

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1547.5 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.04 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Clemson

Record: 20-8 | Elo: 1674.3 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.53 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 25-2 | Elo: 1833.2 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.29 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1545.4 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.83 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Georgia Tech

Record: 11-17 | Elo: 1452.0 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.87 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Louisville

Record: 20-8 | Elo: 1657.8 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.87 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Miami

Record: 21-6 | Elo: 1579.7 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.50 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

NC State

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1610.6 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.85 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Notre Dame

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1472.2 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.25 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Pitt

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1479.7 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.55 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

SMU

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1623.7 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.60 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1550.7 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.52 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1527.3 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.95 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC

Record: 22-6 | Elo: 1697.9 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.59 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UVA

Record: 24-3 | Elo: 1687.5 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.50 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1564.4 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.30 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1561.0 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.45 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

ACC Teams’ Momentum Analysis

As the ACC continues its season, we’ve identified key trends that highlight improving and worsening momentum for several teams.

Florida State’s offense is trending up on shooting percentage with a 0.51 season average, indicating more consistent scoring threats. The Seminoles are also committing fewer turnovers at a 0.145 season average, down from previous trends, suggesting better ball control and decision-making. However, the team’s rebounding prowess on the offensive end has worsened, as evidenced by its downward trend in off-rebound percentage.

Louisville’s turnover rate is trending up at a 0.161 season average, which could lead to scoring droughts and make it challenging for the team to maintain momentum.

Boston College’s defense is struggling as opponents are shooting more effectively against them with an upward trend in opponent shooting percentage at 0.49. The Eagles’ defensive prowess has also suffered due to their decreased ability to force turnovers from opponents.

Clemson’s defense has seen improvements on both ends of the court, particularly in its ability to grab a higher percentage of defensive rebounds at 0.765, up from previous trends. This trend suggests a more secure and efficient defensive presence, which compensates for the team’s opponents shooting more effectively against them with an upward trend in opponent shooting percentage at 0.48.

In contrast, some ACC teams are yet to show consistent momentum. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these trends continue to shape the conference’s standings.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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