American Update: Week 16

American Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Temple, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Temple’s struggle with accuracy and consistency in shooting has been evident throughout their season.
  2. Tulane, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Tulane’s inability to secure rebounds effectively presents a major issue contributing to their overall team performance.
  3. Wichita State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Wichita State’s lack of aggression in pursuing loose balls on both ends of the court is contributing to their struggles with securing defensive rebounds, making it increasingly difficult for them to control possession and create scoring opportunities.
  4. USF, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – The USF Bulls are struggling with rebounding, which is contributing to their defensive problems in conference play.
  5. Memphis, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Memphis’s inability to convert shots from the field into points consistently on offense poses a major issue, as it leads to difficulties in maintaining a steady scoring pace and creating scoring opportunities within their overall game strategy.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. ECU, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Eastern Carolina University’s struggling defensive rebounding has hindered their ability to be a stifling defense, which has been a hallmark of their team this season.

(Note: The revised sentence explicitly connects defensive rebounding to the trend of being stifling, making it clear that the struggle with defensive rebounding affects their ability to be effective in this area.)

  1. Memphis, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Memphis struggles with securing rebounds, allowing opposing teams to gain possession and control of the rebounding department.
  2. ECU, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – ECU’s defense struggles with the increasingly formidable shooting skills of their opponents, which pose a significant challenge to their ability to defend effectively against enhanced abilities.
  3. ECU, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – East Carolina’s defense is struggling due to opponents consistently winning possession and not surrendering the ball, putting their defensive prowess under strain.
  4. Memphis, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – The Memphis defense has struggled to limit opponent turnovers, which in turn has increased their opponents’ scoring opportunities and resulted in a difficult defensive situation for the team to overcome.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1469.2 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.66 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

ECU

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1427.7 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.32 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

FAU

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1546.4 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.08 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Memphis

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1593.5 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.11 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 16-12 | Elo: 1573.0 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.27 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1417.5 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.27 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1507.8 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.70 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1559.7 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.31 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Tulsa

Record: 22-6 | Elo: 1564.3 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.06 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UAB

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1618.6 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.61 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

USF

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1599.9 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.97 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 5-22 | Elo: 1332.7 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.45 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1573.3 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.75 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

American Conference Week 16 Wrap-Up: Key Trends to Watch

As the American conference continues its season, several teams are showing notable trends in their key statistics. This analysis focuses on the most significant changes in offense and defense, highlighting areas where teams are improving or struggling.

Offensive Trends

USF has seen a decline in their Off Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.354), indicating a weakening ability to secure rebounds on offense. Memphis’ shooting percentage is trending down, with a Season Avg of 0.49, signifying a worsening trend for the team. ECU’s inability to capitalize on its scoring opportunities has led to an overall decline in their efficiency.

Defensive Trends

ECU has struggled defensively, with declines in several key metrics, including Def Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.687) and Opp Turnovers (Season Avg: 0.154). This indicates a significant problem for the team on defense, which may hinder its chances of success in future games. Memphis has also seen trouble forcing turnovers, with an Opp Turnovers trend down.

The MACD momentum indicators are being used as a tool to monitor these teams’ progress next week, providing valuable insights into which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum. The MACD measure is a momentum indicator that helps identify changes in a team’s performance over time, aiding in understanding whether the trends observed in ECU and Memphis’ defensive metrics are consistent with their overall season trajectory.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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