Big Ten Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Indiana, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.038 – The Hoosiers’ struggles to secure defensive rebounds are contributing to their defensive woes, ultimately hindering their overall performance.
Maryland, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.032 – The team’s struggle to secure rebounds on offense is contributing to their struggles in developing a consistent flow of scoring opportunities, ultimately hindering their overall performance.
Iowa, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Iowa’s field goal percentage has been declining, contributing to their struggle with consistent scoring and overall performance issues.
Minnesota, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Minnesota’s improved three-point shooting has been a significant development, as they have increased their attempts by 10% from last season to now average 25 per game, which has led to a noticeable shift in their offense’s strategy.
Illinois, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Illinois’ struggles with turnovers are causing disruptions in their game flow, making it difficult for them to maintain control and consistency.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Indiana, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Indiana’s three-point shooting percentage has been a notable struggle, with its inconsistency in converting from beyond the arc proving to be a problem throughout the season.
Indiana, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Indiana’s inability to force turnovers is causing problems for their defensive efforts.
Iowa, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Iowa’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ scoring threats, particularly in terms of Iowa: Opp Shooting, where they have been allowing a significant number of shots on goal, posing a major problem for the team to overcome on the court.
Indiana, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Indiana’s poor defensive rebounding struggles allow opponents to control the tempo, ultimately dictating the pace of the game and impacting their own scoring opportunities as well as limiting Indiana’s chances at offense.
Iowa, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Iowa’s defensive strategy continues to struggle with allowing opponents to maintain possession, as evidenced by its trend of ranking low in forcing takeaways, resulting in a problem of sustained opponent ball control throughout games.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota
Trending Down (Efficiency): Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 22-6 | Elo: 1718.2 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.33 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Indiana

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1623.2 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.37 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1627.0 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.18 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Maryland

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1559.6 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.65 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Michigan

Record: 25-2 | Elo: 1780.3 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.79 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Michigan State

Record: 22-5 | Elo: 1741.6 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.42 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Minnesota

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1512.1 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.99 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 23-4 | Elo: 1687.6 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.75 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1508.5 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.02 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1607.5 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.95 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Oregon

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1545.9 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.94 (ranked 124 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 11-17 | Elo: 1477.6 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.26 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 22-5 | Elo: 1751.9 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.69 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1498.6 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.44 (ranked 134 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UCLA

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1647.0 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.85 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

USC

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1586.1 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.68 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Washington

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1508.3 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.83 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1681.7 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.77 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 16 Big Ten Review: Key Trends and Takeaways

As the Big Ten season reaches its midpoint, we’ve analyzed key trends to identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those struggling with unsustainable momentum.

Illinois’ Turnover Prevention Continues
The Illini’s trend of decreasing turnovers signals an improvement in their decision-making. This strength will be crucial for Illinois as they look to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Indiana’s Rebounding Woes Continue
Indiana is experiencing difficulties securing rebounds, particularly on offense. Their off-rebound percentage indicates a decline in rebounding efficiency that will likely impact their scoring potential.

Iowa’s Shooting Struggles
The Hawkeyes are struggling on offense, particularly with shooting accuracy. Their trend of decreasing shooting percentages suggests a widening gap between themselves and their opponents.

Maryland’s Rebounding Decline
Maryland is experiencing difficulties securing rebounds, particularly on defense. Their off-rebound percentage trend indicates a decline in rebounding efficiency that will likely impact their scoring potential.

Indiana’s Defensive Decline
Indiana’s defense has faltered this season, with several key metrics pointing towards decline. They’re allowing opponents to shoot effectively and secure defensive rebounds less frequently, indicating a concerning trend for the Hoosiers’ overall defense.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference