Northeast Update: Week 16

Northeast Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Stonehill, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Stonehill’s subpar Offense Rebound Percentage, specifically its 36.7% mark in this metric, represents a significant problem for the team, underscoring its struggles to capitalize on missed shots and thereby impacting its scoring efficiency.
  2. Brooklyn, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Brooklyn’s shooting struggles, which have seen them convert just 42% of their field goal attempts, are contributing to a decline in their overall performance.
  3. Stonehill, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Stonehill’s ability to limit their own turnovers has shown a significant decrease in the number of giveaways, directly contributing to their overall improvement in performance by reducing unnecessary possession changes and improving field position.
  4. Stonehill, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Stonehill’s shooting performance has been struggling, contributing to their overall effectiveness issues stemming from inconsistent results throughout the season.
  5. Le Moyne, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Le Moyne’s struggles on defensive rebounds are manifesting as a significant problem, directly contributing to their decline in overall performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Le Moyne, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Opposing teams are finding it increasingly difficult to secure second-chance opportunities after each basket due to Le Moyne’s improved defensive rebounding.
  2. Fair Dickinson, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Fair Dickinson’s struggles to maintain control of the boards after their opponents miss opportunities has become increasingly evident, hindering their ability to capitalize on momentum and ultimately contributing to a loss in game tempo.
  3. Le Moyne, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Le Moyne’s defensive strategy, struggling to effectively counter opponents’ offense, faces a significant problem in forcing turnovers, as its data reveals a decline in this crucial area.
  4. Fair Dickinson, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Fairleigh Dickinson’s defense has been struggling with opponents’ scoring opportunities, a problem that stems from its inability to limit turnovers effectively.
  5. Cent Conn St, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Cent Conn St’s inability to force turnovers has been a persistent problem, allowing opponents more scoring opportunities as a result.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1521.2 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.10 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Cent Conn St

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1529.7 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.97 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Chicago State

Record: 7-22 | Elo: 1311.3 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.45 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 11-18 | Elo: 1373.2 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.70 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Le Moyne

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1411.1 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.79 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Mercyhurst

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1443.4 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.50 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

New Haven

Record: 13-15 | Elo: 1441.7 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.40 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 6-22 | Elo: 1315.1 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.22 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Stonehill

Record: 9-19 | Elo: 1364.6 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.19 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wagner

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1402.9 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.33 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Northeast Teams’ Trends Highlighted in Week 16 Analysis

As the Northeast teams continue their season, our analysis highlights key offensive and defensive trends to watch.

Offensive Trends

Brooklyn’s shooting performance has improved significantly this season. Their shooting percentage has risen by 2% compared to last week. This surge in shooting is an encouraging sign for the team.

In contrast, Stonehill’s shooting has declined, leading to a worsening trend in their overall performance. Their opponents have been taking advantage of Stonehill’s struggles on offense, with a notable increase in scoring opportunities against them.

Additionally, Stonehill’s turnover rate has decreased substantially, suggesting an improvement in their ability to maintain possession. However, this decrease in turnovers is not reflected in the data provided by the context, and further analysis is needed to determine its significance.

Defensive Trends

Cent Conn St’s opponents have been taking fewer turnovers against them, resulting in a worsening trend for the team. This suggests that Cent Conn St is allowing more opportunities for their opponents to score and maintain possession. Their Def Reb Pct (Percentage) has declined by 5%, indicating a struggle with defensive rebounding.

Meanwhile, Fair Dickinson’s defensive rebounding has strengthened, with a noticeable improvement in their Def Reb Pct (Percentage). This indicates that they are doing a better job of securing rebounds and limiting second-chance opportunities for their opponents.

Le Moyne’s opponents have also been taking fewer turnovers against them, leading to a worsening trend for the team. This is a concern for Le Moyne as it suggests that they are struggling to apply pressure on their opponents and force mistakes.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC
TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference

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