Southland Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Nicholls, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – Nicholls’ struggles with rebounding have been a significant problem, making it difficult for them to secure crucial defensive boards and maintain control of the ball on key possessions, which in turn hurts their effectiveness in defensive field goal percentage and ultimately affects their scoring margin.
McNeese, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – McNeese’s performance has been plagued by a struggle to secure second chance opportunities due to poor rebounding, hindering their ability to capitalize on offense and stifling their playmaking abilities.
Incarnate Word, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Securing rebounds consistently has become a struggle for Incarnate Word, as it hampers their offense and contributes to an overall lack of control in controlling the paint.
Northwestern St, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Northwestern St’s offense has struggled to convert shots into points due to a poor shooting performance, which has hindered their scoring ability.
Houston Baptist, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Houston Baptist’s inconsistent shooting rhythm is proving to be an ongoing challenge for their ability to score effectively.

Strongest Defensive Trends

McNeese, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – McNeese has shown improvement in defensive rebound percentage, allowing them to gain a significant advantage on the glass against their opponents with a notable increase in securing rebounds during crucial moments of the game.
New Orleans, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – New Orleans’ defense is struggling to contain its opponents’ Opp Shooting, a concerning development that threatens the team’s prospects.
Incarnate Word, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Incarnate Word has struggled to allow opponents’ second-chance opportunities due in part to their defensive rebounding performance, which has shown a significant improvement.
Incarnate Word, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Incarnate Word’s inability to force turnovers on defense has been an issue, making it difficult for them to maintain possession and create scoring chances.
Nicholls, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Nicholls struggles to limit their opponents’ possessions, posing a significant challenge to their overall performance.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): New Orleans, Nicholls, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC, Texas A&M-Commerce
Trending Down (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese, Northwestern St, Lamar

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 11-18 | Elo: 1358.5 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.77 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 11-18 | Elo: 1364.9 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.66 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Lamar

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1416.7 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.81 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

McNeese

Record: 24-5 | Elo: 1673.2 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.79 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1418.4 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.05 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1463.0 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.36 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Northwestern St

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1392.8 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.97 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 8-21 | Elo: 1372.0 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.40 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 25-4 | Elo: 1592.8 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.02 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1477.7 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.26 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1328.0 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.44 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1469.0 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.02 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southland Conference Teams Show Varied Momentum in Week 16

As the college basketball season continues, teams within the Southland Conference are exhibiting distinct trends that can be attributed to their performance over the past few weeks. Analyzing these momentum indicators provides valuable insights into which teams are genuinely improving and those that may be experiencing unsustainable success.

Offensive Trends Highlight Challenges

Houston Baptist’s shooting percentage has decreased from 44.5%, indicating a decline in their overall performance. Incarnate Word is facing challenges in securing offensive rebounds at an impressive rate this season, struggling to maintain its usual standards. McNeese State University is also encountering issues with defensive rebounding percentages, pointing to a problem with securing second-chance opportunities.

Defensive Trends Suggest Improvement

In contrast, some teams are displaying significant improvements on the defensive end of the court. Incarnate Word has shown an upward trend in its ability to grab defensive boards, increasing its defensive rebounding percentage from 74.1% to 76.9%. McNeese State University’s defense has also demonstrated improvement in grabbing defensive rebounds, showing an upward trend compared to their season average. New Orleans Privateers have showcased an increase in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, highlighting their growing defensive prowess.

Nicholls is experiencing a decline in its free throw percentage, making it challenging for the team to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Texas A&M-CC has struggled with maintaining a high defensive rebounding rate, indicating a potential issue with securing second-chance possessions. Southeastern Louisiana has faced challenges in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, affecting their overall defensive performance.

Lamar and Northwestern State have both shown improvements in free throw percentage, allowing them to capitalize on scoring opportunities more effectively. Texas A&M-Commerce has demonstrated an increase in defensive rebounding rate, showcasing its growing ability to secure second-chance possessions. Lastly, Stephen F. Austin has displayed a notable improvement in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, indicating their growing defensive prowess.

The teams within the Southland Conference are showcasing varied momentum trends, highlighting both areas of improvement and potential problems. By analyzing these indicators, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving and those that may be experiencing unsustainable success.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference