Conference USA Update: Week 17

Conference USA Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. UTEP, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.033 – UTEP’s struggles on the offensive glass are becoming increasingly pronounced, with their poor performance in securing rebounds contributing to their overall inefficiencies.
  2. W Kentucky, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.033 – Western Kentucky’s increased three-point attempts have contributed to improved shooting efficiency.
  3. W Kentucky, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – Western Kentucky’s inability to secure rebounds consistently has created significant challenges for them throughout their season, as opponents frequently capitalize on second-chance scoring opportunities.
  4. FIU, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – FIU’s struggles with securing possessions on offense are further complicated by their persistent problems controlling rebounds, which directly undermines their capacity to capitalize on second-chance opportunities.
  5. LA Tech, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – LA Tech’s turnover struggles have intensified, significantly impacting their ability to execute on offense and maintain defensive consistency.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Jacksonville St, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Jacksonville St’s defense has been struggling to contain opponents, resulting in a notable decline over time.
  2. W Kentucky, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Western Kentucky has seen a notable improvement in their defensive glass, where they effectively stifle opponents’ scoring opportunities by securing key rebounds.
  3. UTEP, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – UTEP’s defensive strategy has struggled to balance effectiveness against opponents with its own performance, hindering the team’s overall success.
  4. Mid Tennessee, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Mid Tennessee’s defensive efforts are struggling, evident in their opponents’ lack of made field goals from beyond the arc.
  5. LA Tech, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – LA Tech’s defense, which has allowed an average of 17 points per game, forces turnovers on nearly half of its opponents’ possessions, creating a challenging environment for opposing offenses to sustain drives and accumulate meaningful yardage.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 9-19 | Elo: 1424.2 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.13 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

FIU

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1430.6 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.41 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Jacksonville St

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1488.8 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.24 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Kennesaw State

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1536.2 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.97 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

LA Tech

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1516.0 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.53 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Liberty

Record: 24-5 | Elo: 1685.6 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.91 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1518.4 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.83 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Missouri State

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1409.0 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.03 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

New Mexico St

Record: 13-15 | Elo: 1463.8 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.62 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Sam Houston

Record: 21-8 | Elo: 1589.5 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.01 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UTEP

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1428.9 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.05 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

W Kentucky

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1545.2 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.59 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Conference USA Week 17 Analysis

As Conference USA teams conclude their week, several key trends have emerged that highlight areas of improvement and decline. By examining data-driven insights provided by MACD indicators, we can identify which teams are building momentum and which are facing challenges.

On offense, three teams stand out for their struggles with rebounding percentages. FIU’s Off Reb Pct has decreased to 68.8%, indicating a problem in securing rebounds, while UTEP’s Off Reb Pct has also trended downward to 69.2%. Conversely, W Kentucky’s Def Reb Pct has improved significantly to 76.9%, as they continue to excel on the defensive glass, grabbing more boards than their peers.

Defensively, some teams are struggling with forcing turnovers. LA Tech’s Turnovers have increased to 15.6 per game, leading to a struggle to maintain possession and pressure opponents. Meanwhile, UTEP’s Opp Turnovers have decreased to 10.9 per game, allowing opponents to maintain possession for longer periods of time.

W Kentucky’s Def Reb Pct deserves recognition for its notable improvement, as they continue to excel on the defensive glass. Mid Tennessee’s Opp Shooting has also seen a decline to 44.7%, which is a positive trend for their defense.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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