Mountain West Update: Week 17

Mountain West Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. UNLV, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – UNLV’s shooting woes have largely dissipated as their scoring efficiency on the court shows noticeable signs of improvement, with this trend suggesting that their efforts in refining their shot selection are paying off.
  2. San Jose State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – San Jose State has been struggling with turnovers, which have negatively impacted their performance by providing opponents with increased scoring opportunities and reducing ball control.
  3. San Jose State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – San Jose State’s three-point shooting has shown a notable uptick in accuracy and consistency this season, directly contributing to their increased scoring potential.
  4. Nevada, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Nevada’s turnover issue has been a persistent problem, hindering their ability to maintain possession on offense and effectively manage the game.
  5. Fresno State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Fresno State’s defensive rebounding has shown significant improvement, as they have increased their rebounds per game from an average of 25 to 30 in recent weeks, allowing them to maintain possession and control of the game.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. San Jose State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – San Jose State’s defense has been struggling with opponents shooting effectively in Mountain West conference games, allowing them to score freely.
  2. New Mexico, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – New Mexico’s defense is struggling to force turnovers, as its opponents have committed an average of 15.6 miscues per game this season.
  3. Boise State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Boise State’s defensive strategy of forcing turnovers has faltered, allowing opponents to capitalize on this weakness and gain momentum with increased possessions.
  4. Air Force, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Air Force’s defense has struggled to force takeaways from opponents, a trend that could negatively impact their performance down the line by allowing opponents to maintain possession and potentially capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  5. San Diego State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – The San Diego State defense has struggled to stifle its opponents, leading to a worsening trend of allowing them to maintain control and ultimately winning games.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-26 | Elo: 1254.4 (ranked 368 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.01 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1641.3 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.43 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Colorado State

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1637.2 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.22 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1409.1 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.32 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1629.0 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.16 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1606.0 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.97 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

New Mexico

Record: 22-7 | Elo: 1691.0 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.51 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1661.8 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.10 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 8-21 | Elo: 1394.0 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.22 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1558.8 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.86 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Utah State

Record: 24-5 | Elo: 1724.9 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.52 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Wyoming

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1491.8 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.61 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mountain West Teams Show Varied Trends in Week 17

Our analysis highlights key trends that offer insight into team performance, focusing on turnovers and shooting accuracy as primary metrics.

Fresno State’s trend line indicates a decline in forcing turnovers among opponents. This downward momentum suggests that they will continue to struggle with limiting their opponents’ chances.

Nevada’s upward trend in turnovers signifies a problem for the team, as this worsening turnover rate could negatively impact their overall performance.

San Jose State showcases two notable trends: an increase in shooting accuracy and a decrease in turnovers. The former suggests improved scoring opportunities, while the latter indicates better possession management. These developments could contribute to the team’s growth and consistency.

Air Force, Boise State, New Mexico, and San Diego State all demonstrate a downward trend in forcing turnovers among their opponents. This decline in defensive prowess may lead to increased scoring opportunities for opposing teams, making these areas of concern for each squad.

Utah State’s upward trend in shooting accuracy is an area of improvement for the Aggies, who have shown consistent scoring efficiency throughout the season. Colorado State’s downward trend in forcing turnovers among opponents is a challenge that they will need to address if they want to remain competitive.

Wyoming and UNLV do not have significant trends in Week 17 analysis.

Our analysis provides a snapshot of team performance in Week 17, with the Mountain West’s diverse range of trends revisited next week with updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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