America East Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Binghamton, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.03 – Binghamton’s shooting performance has been a persistent problem, negatively impacting their overall results and indicating a need for improvement in this critical area to achieve better outcomes.
Maine, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Maine’s inability to secure a significant portion of available rebounds on offense is proving to be a significant problem for their team, causing them to struggle in this area.
Binghamton, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Binghamton’s reliance on opponents’ missed rebounds is a problem contributing to their struggles with offense rebound percentage in recent games.
UMass Lowell, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – UMass Lowell’s decrease in turnovers has led to improved ball control, allowing their offense to maintain possession and set up scoring opportunities on a consistent basis, while also reducing defensive breakdowns that often result from hurried plays. This enhanced ball control sets a strong foundation for the team to perform at a higher level on both ends of the court.
Albany, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Albany’s tendency to give up possession on offense is causing a struggle in maintaining scoring consistency against opposing defenses.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Maine, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Maine’s defensive rebounding efforts are a significant problem, as evidenced by their consistent struggles in securing defensive rebounds and allowing opponents to gain a significant advantage on the glass.
UMBC, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – UMBC’s improvement in defensive rebounding has enhanced its possession control, stifling opponents’ scoring opportunities through more consistent execution of their game plan.
UMBC, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – UMBC’s defensive strategy faces a significant challenge due to opponents’ steadily improving shooting, which poses a considerable problem for their overall performance.
UNH, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – UNH’s defense has become a significant problem for its opponents, who are struggling to generate scoring opportunities.
UNH, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – The University of New Hampshire’s improved defensive rebounding percentage has been a significant struggle for its opponents, who have found it increasingly difficult to capitalize on their own scoring opportunities due to UNH’s increased effectiveness in securing rebounds.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Albany, Binghamton, Maine, UNH, UMBC
Trending Down (Efficiency): UMass Lowell, NJIT

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 11-21 | Elo: 1392.2 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.67 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Binghamton

Record: 6-23 | Elo: 1335.6 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.67 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Bryant

Record: 9-22 | Elo: 1414.5 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.04 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Maine

Record: 8-24 | Elo: 1379.9 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.39 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

NJIT

Record: 16-16 | Elo: 1410.3 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.73 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UMBC

Record: 22-8 | Elo: 1529.6 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.67 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UMass Lowell

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1464.6 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.10 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UNH

Record: 9-21 | Elo: 1344.2 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.06 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Vermont

Record: 21-11 | Elo: 1582.0 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.03 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

America East Teams Show Varied Trends in Week 18

The America East conference has seen a mix of positive and negative developments this season, with some teams showing improvement while others struggle to sustain their momentum. Let’s break down the key trends from Week 18.

Albany is struggling with turnovers, which are worsening as its turnover rate increases. In contrast, Binghamton is experiencing an uptick in shooting accuracy, with a current opponents’ shooting efficiency of 42%. However, Binghamton is also seeing a decline in its ability to grab rebounds on offense, which could impact their scoring opportunities.

Maine is excelling at grabbing defensive rebounds and holding onto them, showcasing a strong defensive rebounding percentage. Conversely, UNH is struggling with opponents shooting more efficiently against them, with an increase in opponents’ shooting efficiency to 46%. UMBC’s defense has taken a step in the right direction by limiting opponents’ ability to shoot effectively, resulting in a current opponents’ shooting efficiency of 38%.

The trends observed highlight the diverse performances within the conference. While some teams show promise, others face challenges that need to be addressed for improved overall performance.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East

TagsAEC America East America East Conference