Mid-American Update: Week 18

Mid-American Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Bowling Green, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Bowling Green’s struggles with possession control, specifically their inability to corral rebounds after misses, are significantly hindering their ability to maintain sustained drives throughout games.
  2. Ball State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Ball State’s struggles with shooting from outside their scoring range have hindered their overall performance as a team.
  3. Akron, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Akron’s inconsistent shooting has been a significant problem, likely indicating an improvement in other areas of their game that may be contributing to their recent success.
  4. Bowling Green, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Bowling Green’s reduction in turnovers has enabled their offense to capitalize on scoring opportunities as they arise, alleviating a key problem that previously hindered their efforts.
  5. Akron, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Akron’s struggle with turnovers continues to hamper their momentum, hindering their chances of winning by contributing to anemic scoring opportunities and perpetuating a trend that has been negatively impacting their performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Akron, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Akron’s strong defensive rebounding has stifled opponents, forcing them to struggle with maintaining possession due to their inability to secure crucial defensive rebounds and control of the game.
  2. Ball State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Ball State’s defense has been struggling to contain opponents in close-range situations, allowing them to consistently get within three-point shooting range and create scoring opportunities.
  3. Bowling Green, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Bowling Green’s inability to contain opponents on defense has been exacerbated by its struggles with rebounding, leading to stifling of opponent scoring opportunities and a loss of possession control.
  4. Ball State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Ball State’s struggles with securing defensive rebounds have become a significant area of focus.
  5. Bowling Green, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – The Bowling Green defense has been struggling to make a significant impact on opponents’ possessions, largely due to its inability to force turnovers.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 26-5 | Elo: 1707.1 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.94 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1413.5 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.93 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1475.4 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.26 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Buffalo

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1421.4 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.01 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Cent Michigan

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1394.6 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.16 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

E Michigan

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1383.2 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.68 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kent State

Record: 23-8 | Elo: 1622.9 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.19 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 31-0 | Elo: 1715.8 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.59 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

N Illinois

Record: 9-21 | Elo: 1321.6 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.73 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1478.7 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.58 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Toledo

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1535.3 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.03 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UMass

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1427.6 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.47 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1379.7 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.59 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mid-American Teams’ Week 18 Analysis

As the Mid-American Conference continues its season, several teams are showcasing notable trends in key statistical categories. Our analysis focuses on offense and defense, highlighting areas where teams are improving or declining.

Offensive Trends to Note:

  • Akron is experiencing a significant improvement in shooting accuracy (Season Avg: 0.59, Trend: Up). This upward trend indicates the team’s ability to convert shots into points.
  • However, this positive trend may be offset by an increase in turnovers, which could negatively impact their scoring opportunities.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

  • Akron is strengthening its defensive rebounding capabilities, with a noticeable improvement in Def Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.725, Trend: Up). This uptick suggests the team’s ability to secure critical boards and limit opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities.
  • Ball State is exhibiting excellent defensive prowess on two fronts:
    • Opp Shooting (Season Avg: 0.53, Trend: Down) is decreasing, indicating the team’s capacity to thwart opponents’ shooting attempts and protect their own basket.
    • Def Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.707, Trend: Up) is also trending upward, further emphasizing Ball State’s ability to secure defensive boards and stifle opponents’ scoring chances.

Defensive Struggles in the MAC:

  • Bowling Green is experiencing a decline in Opp Turnovers, suggesting that they may be creating fewer opportunities for turnovers on defense. This trend could negatively impact their ability to disrupt opponents’ offense.

This Week 18 analysis highlights key trends and areas of improvement or concern for Mid-American teams. As the season unfolds, we will continue to monitor these statistics and provide updates on momentum shifts within the conference.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

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