Week 18 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Week 18: March 02 – March 09, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 10.3 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 4 games decided by 5 points or less and 3 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #286 Long Beach St.

These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.

#10: Long Beach St @ Hawai’i

Final Score: Long Beach St 84, Hawai’i 75
Date: March 07, 2026
Venue: Long Beach St @ Hawai’i
Favorite: Hawai’i (Ranked #123)
Underdog: Long Beach St (Ranked #286)
Predicted Score: Hawai’i 74.6 – 69.2 (5.4 points)
Upset Rating: 11.4

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Hawai’i had 4 players with 4+ fouls
Three-point shooting: Long Beach St 9-18 (50%), Hawai’i 6-26 (23%)
Free throws: Long Beach St 19-30 (63%), Hawai’i 15-21 (71%)
Two-point shooting: Long Beach St 19-33 (58%), Hawai’i 21-38 (55%)

#9: UNC Wilmington vs. Campbell

Final Score: Campbell 85, UNC Wilmington 70
Date: March 08, 2026
Venue: UNC Wilmington vs. Campbell (neutral site)
Favorite: UNC Wilmington (Ranked #99)
Underdog: Campbell (Ranked #211)
Predicted Score: UNC Wilmington 80.1 – 73.0 (7.1 points)
Upset Rating: 11.5

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: UNC Wilmington had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 2 fouled out
Three-point shooting: Campbell 7-22 (32%), UNC Wilmington 2-18 (11%)
Free throws: Campbell 26-31 (84%), UNC Wilmington 16-22 (73%)
Two-point shooting: Campbell 19-35 (54%), UNC Wilmington 24-49 (49%)

#8: Utah State @ UNLV

Final Score: UNLV 92, Utah State 65
Date: March 03, 2026
Venue: Utah State @ UNLV
Favorite: Utah State (Ranked #36)
Underdog: UNLV (Ranked #102)
Predicted Score: Utah State 77.5 – 71.2 (6.3 points)
Upset Rating: 11.5

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: UNLV 10-25 (40%), Utah State 5-30 (17%)
Two-point shooting: UNLV 24-34 (71%), Utah State 18-31 (58%)
Rebounding: UNLV 35, Utah State 27 (8-rebound advantage)

#7: Sacred Heart vs. Iona

Final Score: Sacred Heart 91, Iona 80
Date: March 05, 2026
Venue: Sacred Heart vs. Iona (neutral site)
Favorite: Iona (Ranked #176)
Underdog: Sacred Heart (Ranked #249)
Predicted Score: Iona 82.2 – 74.2 (8.0 points)
Upset Rating: 11.6

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Iona had 2 players with 4+ fouls
Two-point shooting: Sacred Heart 16-21 (76%), Iona 22-35 (63%)
Three-point shooting: Sacred Heart 13-37 (35%), Iona 8-31 (26%)

#6: Drake vs. S Illinois

Final Score: Drake 67, S Illinois 63
Date: March 05, 2026
Venue: Drake vs. S Illinois (neutral site)
Favorite: S Illinois (Ranked #108)
Underdog: Drake (Ranked #193)
Predicted Score: S Illinois 80.5 – 72.2 (8.3 points)
Upset Rating: 12.1

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: Drake 9-31 (29%), S Illinois 4-25 (16%)
Two-point shooting: Drake 15-25 (60%), S Illinois 24-46 (52%)

#5: Belmont vs. Drake

Final Score: Drake 100, Belmont 79
Date: March 06, 2026
Venue: Belmont vs. Drake (neutral site)
Favorite: Belmont (Ranked #55)
Underdog: Drake (Ranked #193)
Predicted Score: Belmont 84.9 – 76.5 (8.4 points)
Upset Rating: 14.6

Key Factors:

Two-point shooting: Drake 20-26 (77%), Belmont 13-28 (46%)
Free throws: Drake 27-31 (87%), Belmont 11-16 (69%)
Three-point shooting: Drake 11-26 (42%), Belmont 14-37 (38%)

#4: Boston U @ Navy

Final Score: Boston U 73, Navy 72
Date: March 08, 2026
Venue: Boston U @ Navy
Favorite: Navy (Ranked #86)
Underdog: Boston U (Ranked #190)
Predicted Score: Navy 81.6 – 68.8 (12.8 points)
Upset Rating: 20.1

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: Boston U 11-24 (46%), Navy 2-13 (15%)
Two-point shooting: Boston U 15-23 (65%), Navy 25-50 (50%)

#3: St. Thomas – Minnesota vs. North Dakota

Final Score: North Dakota 67, St. Thomas – Minnesota 66
Date: March 07, 2026
Venue: St. Thomas – Minnesota vs. North Dakota (neutral site)
Favorite: St. Thomas – Minnesota (Ranked #97)
Underdog: North Dakota (Ranked #281)
Predicted Score: St. Thomas – Minnesota 84.8 – 75.5 (9.3 points)
Upset Rating: 21.0

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: St. Thomas – Minnesota had 3 players with 4+ fouls
Three-point shooting: North Dakota 7-19 (37%), St. Thomas – Minnesota 4-24 (17%)
Two-point shooting: North Dakota 15-25 (60%), St. Thomas – Minnesota 21-36 (58%)

#2: Kansas @ Arizona State

Final Score: Arizona State 70, Kansas 60
Date: March 03, 2026
Venue: Kansas @ Arizona State
Favorite: Kansas (Ranked #19)
Underdog: Arizona State (Ranked #85)
Predicted Score: Kansas 81.1 – 70.0 (11.1 points)
Upset Rating: 21.2

Key Factors:

Free throws: Arizona State 24-30 (80%), Kansas 11-16 (69%)
Three-point shooting: Arizona State 8-25 (32%), Kansas 7-27 (26%)
Two-point shooting: Arizona State 11-34 (32%), Kansas 14-45 (31%)

#1: UC San Diego @ CSU Fullerton

Final Score: CSU Fullerton 75, UC San Diego 71
Date: March 05, 2026
Venue: UC San Diego @ CSU Fullerton
Favorite: UC San Diego (Ranked #151)
Underdog: CSU Fullerton (Ranked #221)
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 86.2 – 59.4 (26.8 points)
Upset Rating: 37.6

Key Factors:

Turnovers: UC San Diego 14, CSU Fullerton 9 (5-turnover disparity)

Week 18 Summary

Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10

This week’s slate of college basketball saw a mix of close games and blowouts, highlighting the unpredictable nature of college hoops.

The data reveals that four games were decided by five points or less, indicating teams are often evenly matched. Conversely, three matchups saw significant margins of victory. Long Beach St secured an impressive 84-75 win over Hawaii. UNLV took down Utah State with a strong performance, while Boston University and ASU notched wins over seeded opponents.

Arizona State’s 70-60 victory over Kansas stands out as one of the most significant upsets of the week. This result demonstrates that top-ranked teams can struggle when facing a well-prepared opponent. The number of close games this week highlights the unpredictability of college basketball, showing that any game can be competitive on a given day.

The average margin of victory was 10.3 points, indicating a relatively balanced competition throughout the slate.

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