American Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Tulsa, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.051 – Tulsa has demonstrated measurable progress on the offensive end of play by effectively converting missed field goals into second-chance scoring opportunities, a tactical evolution that directly fuels their overall team efficiency this season.
Wichita State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Wichita State is experiencing a decline in its ability to secure rebounds on the offensive end of the court, a troubling trend that could undermine their overall performance early in the season.
Temple, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Temple is facing challenges in securing rebounds, a struggle that suggests difficulties on the glass early this season.
Memphis, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Memphis has reduced its turnover count, a clear improvement in ball retention that fuels better offensive flow.
USF, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – USF is showing a positive trend by reducing turnovers this season, which contributes to improved offensive execution.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Rice, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Rice is struggling with its defensive rebounding performance as the squad allows an increasing number of offensive boards to opponents, a clear decline that hinders their ability to limit second-chance scoring opportunities early in the season.
Memphis, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Memphis is struggling defensively as its ability to hold opposing shooters in check deteriorates throughout the early season games.
Rice, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Throughout the season, Rice has shown marked improvement in its capacity to suppress opponents’ scoring output, turning defense into a formidable strength for the program.
Memphis, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – The Tigers are struggling to generate stops, as their ability to force turnovers from opposing units is declining throughout this early season stretch.
Temple, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Temple is showing signs of improvement by successfully forcing more turnovers from their opponents while limiting their own, thereby stifling the opposing team’s ability to maintain possession.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): ECU, Memphis, USF, Tulsa, Charlotte
Trending Down (Efficiency): Temple, Tulane, Wichita State, FAU, Rice

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1503.5 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.48 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

ECU

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1451.0 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.53 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

FAU

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1538.8 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.55 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Memphis

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1569.1 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.07 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1571.2 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.30 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Rice

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1431.2 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.21 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1484.9 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.82 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Tulane

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1508.0 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.95 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1591.0 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.46 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UAB

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1575.2 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.35 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

USF

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1594.9 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.57 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1361.2 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.98 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wichita State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1577.2 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.71 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American programs conclude their Week 1 analysis, the MACD trending indicators provide a crucial lens for distinguishing between genuine development and unsustainable momentum across the conference. While early data points offer immediate context on team trajectories, these metrics track performance over each squad’s games so far to evaluate stability. On the offensive front, turnover reduction stands out as a primary area of strength for Memphis and USF, both of which are trending strongly down in this category, indicating significant improvement as they lower their season averages of 0.151 and 0.111 respectively. Conversely, rebounding efficiency shows a divergence; Tulsa is trending strongly up in offensive rebound percentage, building on a season average of 0.337, while Temple faces the opposite trajectory, with its off-reb pct declining strongly from a 0.228 average, signaling a worsening metric. Defensively, Memphis and Rice present contrasting narratives through opponent shooting percentages. Rice is trending strongly down in opp shooting, averaging 0.47, which denotes an improving defensive stance. In contrast, Memphis is trending strongly up in this same metric with an average of 0.53, a clear indicator that their defense is allowing opponents to shoot at higher rates than previously observed. The dynamics regarding forced turnovers further complicate the picture: Temple is successfully forcing more opponent turnovers, trending strongly up from a 0.16 average, yet Memphis is experiencing a significant decline in this area, trending strongly down from an average of 0.164, meaning they are currently generating fewer stoppages than their season baseline suggests. These early-season data points suggest that while some squads are solidifying foundational metrics, others are grappling with immediate issues that require adjustment before trends can reverse.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC

TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference