Atlantic Sun Update: Week 1

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. FGCU, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.057 – The ongoing improvement in FGCU’s offense rebounding percentage indicates that the team is successfully generating second-chance opportunities, which contributes directly to enhanced scoring efficiency as the season progresses.
  2. Jacksonville, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.033 – Jacksonville has demonstrated a marked improvement in its rebounding percentage since entering this season, suggesting a positive shift that may contribute to securing additional possessions and enhancing overall team performance.
  3. Lipscomb, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Lipscomb is facing significant challenges with its shot selection or execution, as a downward trajectory in shooting performance has begun to hamper the team’s offensive output early in the season.
  4. Jacksonville, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Jacksonville has shown marked improvement in reducing turnovers, a shift that contributes positively to their overall team performance early in the season.
  5. Lipscomb, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – As the season unfolds for Lipscomb, a troubling upward trend in turnovers continues to plague their performance, undermining their offensive efforts by surrendering possession too often.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Queens University, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – Queens University has struggled as its defense allows opposing shooters to find greater success this season.
  2. FGCU, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – As FGCU shows signs of improvement by grabbing more defensive boards, the team is effectively stifling opponents through enhanced rebounding efficiency.
  3. Bellarmine, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Bellarmine faces a troubling early-season struggle with defensive rebounding, as they are failing to secure enough second chances while allowing opponents too many extra offensive opportunities to extend their possessions.
  4. Jacksonville, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Jacksonville is grappling with a troubling struggle on defensive rebounds that unfortunately leaves the door open for opponents to generate extra scoring opportunities at the glass.
  5. Lipscomb, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Lipscomb is experiencing a troubling decline in its defensive rebounding percentage, as allowing more offensive boards to their opponents represents a distinct struggle for the program early this season.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Bellarmine

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1390.0 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.52 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

FGCU

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1469.2 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.23 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1434.5 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.97 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1530.7 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.79 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1393.3 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.54 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Queens University

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1549.8 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.88 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1393.7 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.56 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

West Florida

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1433.9 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.24 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

FGCU has demonstrated significant growth in offensive rebounding efficiency, with a season average of 0.324 trending up strongly to indicate an enhanced ability to generate second-chance points. Similarly, Jacksonville has addressed a critical turnover issue; while their season average stands at 0.147, they are trending down strongly, signifying improved ball security. Additionally, Jacksonville shows positive movement in offensive rebounding percentage, with a season average of approximately 0.219 showing a strong upward trend that suggests an evolving interior presence. Conversely, Lipscomb faces headwinds in shooting efficiency; holding a season average of 0.46, their performance is trending down strongly, pointing to difficulties in shot creation or execution that require immediate attention.

Defensively, FGCU stands out positively with a robust season average of 0.802 in defensive rebound percentage, trending up strongly to indicate success in grabbing boards and stifling opponent transition opportunities. However, other programs are grappling with rebounding lapses. Jacksonville, Lipscomb, and Bellarmine are all exhibiting strong downward trends in their defensive rebound percentage, with season averages of 0.599, 0.691, and 0.584 respectively. For each of these teams, the data confirms a worsening trend where they are allowing more offensive boards to opponents. This shift permits extra possessions for competition, undermining defensive schemes. As the season unfolds, these MACD momentum indicators reveal which Atlantic Sun teams are building sustainable systems versus those navigating early-season volatility.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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