SEC Update: Week 1

SEC Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Alabama, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – As Alabama begins its season, improvements in rebounding percentage suggest the program is developing better defensive positioning to secure extra possessions and fuel their overall performance.
  2. Auburn, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Auburn has demonstrated an upward trajectory in shooting performance, a developing positive trend that is contributing to improved offensive efficiency throughout the early stages of the season.
  3. Alabama, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – As Alabama enters the season, early inconsistencies in their shooting have created a troubling downward trajectory that threatens to undermine their overall offensive production.
  4. Georgia, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Georgia’s significant improvement in ball security is fueling enhanced offensive efficiency by creating more scoring chances while limiting giveaways to the opposition.
  5. Arkansas, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.006 – Arkansas’s Turnovers is trending up, a worsening trend.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. LSU, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – LSU’s ability to suppress opponent shooting is trending in a positive direction early this season, indicating improved defensive efficiency against opposing teams.
  2. Alabama, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Alabama is effectively stifling opponent turnovers, showing a clear upward trajectory in forcing the opposition into mistakes as their defensive pressure intensifies.
  3. LSU, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – LSU is showing marked improvement in its ability to secure defensive rebounds, demonstrating a stronger presence on the boards as they limit opponent possessions.
  4. Auburn, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Auburn shows positive momentum as its ability to suppress opponents from scoring improves throughout the season.
  5. Georgia, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Georgia is struggling to defend against opposing shooters, resulting in an upward trend for opponent shooting that indicates a defensive vulnerability early in the season.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1699.9 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.20 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1665.0 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.16 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Auburn

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1642.0 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.62 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Florida

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1725.4 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.73 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Georgia

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1599.6 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.16 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kentucky

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1632.7 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.85 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

LSU

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1502.7 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.83 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Miss St

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1532.7 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.69 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Missouri

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1564.8 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.96 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1566.2 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.07 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Ole Miss

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1552.1 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.23 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

South Carolina

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1494.2 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.58 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1677.5 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.49 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Texas

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1593.3 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.34 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1625.8 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.92 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Vanderbilt

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1653.5 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.37 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

The early season performance across the league reveals distinct trajectories in offensive efficiency and defensive consistency. Alabama enters with a mixed profile; while offensive rebounding percentage sits at 0.356 and trends strongly up indicating improving value, scoring efficiency is struggling. The team’s season shooting average of 0.5 is trending strongly down, signaling decreasing value for the program. On the other end, Alabama has strengthened its ability to disrupt opposing offenses, forcing more turnovers with an opponent turnover rate averaging nearly 0.2 and trending strongly up from a baseline just under 0.2.

In contrast, Arkansas faces an immediate hurdle regarding ball security. Their season turnover average of 0.155 is trending strongly upward, a clear sign that the unit’s ball handling and decision-making are worsening in the early stages of the campaign. Meanwhile, Auburn demonstrates strong offensive momentum. The Tigers are improving their shooting efficiency, with a season average of 0.57 trending strongly up, signaling increasing value in their attack. Defensively, Auburn is also finding success by suppressing opponent scoring; their opponents’ shooting percentage (season average: 0.45) is trending strongly down, indicating the defense is effectively capping offensive production.

Further south, Georgia and LSU present diverging defensive narratives. Georgia’s defense appears to be regressing, as opponent shooting averages have jumped to 0.49 and are trending strongly up, suggesting a decline in defensive consistency. On the other hand, LSU has stabilized their perimeter defense significantly. Their opponent shooting percentage sits at a low 0.29 and is trending strongly down, reflecting an improving ability to limit high-percentage shots against them. These metrics suggest that while some programs are optimizing key efficiency ratings early in the season, others require immediate adjustments to address rising turnover rates or leaking defense.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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