Week 1 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
November 9, 2026Week 1: November 02 – November 09, 2026
This week saw 9 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 5.6 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 7 games decided by 5 points or less and 0 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #273 Bryant.
These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.
#9: Siena @ Bryant
Final Score: Bryant 80, Siena 75
Date: November 02, 2026
Venue: Siena @ Bryant
Favorite: Siena (Ranked #144)
Underdog: Bryant (Ranked #273)
Predicted Score: Siena 74.0 – 70.5 (3.6 points)
Upset Rating: 6.6
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Siena had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Bench scoring: Bryant 27 points, Siena 10 points (17-point advantage)
- Rebounding: Bryant 42, Siena 34 (8-rebound advantage)
- Three-point shooting: Bryant 10-35 (29%), Siena 6-27 (22%)
#8: Sacred Heart @ UNH
Final Score: Sacred Heart 81, UNH 76
Date: November 08, 2026
Venue: Sacred Heart @ UNH
Favorite: UNH (Ranked #167)
Underdog: Sacred Heart (Ranked #237)
Predicted Score: UNH 75.6 – 68.9 (6.8 points)
Upset Rating: 9.6
Key Factors:
- Free throws: Sacred Heart 21-25 (84%), UNH 10-15 (67%)
- Three-point shooting: Sacred Heart 10-23 (43%), UNH 10-28 (36%)
#7: McNeese @ North Texas
Final Score: North Texas 77, McNeese 67
Date: November 05, 2026
Venue: McNeese @ North Texas
Favorite: McNeese (Ranked #104)
Underdog: North Texas (Ranked #141)
Predicted Score: McNeese 81.8 – 74.5 (7.2 points)
Upset Rating: 10.7
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: North Texas 19-29 (66%), McNeese 10-27 (37%)
#6: Youngstown St @ St Bonaventure
Final Score: Youngstown St 79, St Bonaventure 71
Date: November 02, 2026
Venue: Youngstown St @ St Bonaventure
Favorite: St Bonaventure (Ranked #80)
Underdog: Youngstown St (Ranked #142)
Predicted Score: St Bonaventure 80.5 – 73.0 (7.5 points)
Upset Rating: 12.1
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Youngstown St 12-32 (38%), St Bonaventure 6-17 (35%)
#5: Toledo @ Marshall
Final Score: Toledo 81, Marshall 76
Date: November 07, 2026
Venue: Toledo @ Marshall
Favorite: Marshall (Ranked #99)
Underdog: Toledo (Ranked #185)
Predicted Score: Marshall 80.1 – 69.9 (10.1 points)
Upset Rating: 15.3
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Marshall had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Free throws: Toledo 20-35 (57%), Marshall 8-12 (67%)
- Turnovers: Marshall 16, Toledo 5 (11-turnover disparity)
- Two-point shooting: Toledo 26-51 (51%), Marshall 19-42 (45%)
#4: Quinnipiac @ Vermont
Final Score: Quinnipiac 79, Vermont 76
Date: November 08, 2026
Venue: Quinnipiac @ Vermont
Favorite: Vermont (Ranked #128)
Underdog: Quinnipiac (Ranked #168)
Predicted Score: Vermont 77.7 – 58.6 (19.1 points)
Upset Rating: 26.0
Key Factors:
- Bench scoring: Quinnipiac 37 points, Vermont 10 points (27-point advantage)
- Three-point shooting: Quinnipiac 11-23 (48%), Vermont 5-16 (31%)
- Turnovers: Vermont 7, Quinnipiac 2 (5-turnover disparity)
#3: Memphis vs. Iowa State
Final Score: Memphis 80, Iowa State 76
Date: November 02, 2026
Venue: Memphis vs. Iowa State (neutral site)
Favorite: Iowa State (Ranked #31)
Underdog: Memphis (Ranked #87)
Predicted Score: Iowa State 88.0 – 68.2 (19.8 points)
Upset Rating: 36.5
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Memphis 9-20 (45%), Iowa State 4-20 (20%)
- Foul trouble: Iowa State had 2 players with 4+ fouls
#2: N Illinois @ Dayton
Final Score: N Illinois 81, Dayton 76
Date: November 07, 2026
Venue: N Illinois @ Dayton
Favorite: Dayton (Ranked #118)
Underdog: N Illinois (Ranked #249)
Predicted Score: Dayton 93.0 – 67.0 (26.0 points)
Upset Rating: 47.6
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Dayton had 3 players with 4+ fouls
- Three-point shooting: N Illinois 12-30 (40%), Dayton 2-17 (12%)
- Rebounding: N Illinois 36, Dayton 26 (10-rebound advantage, 11 offensive)
#1: Fort Valley State @ Florida A&M
Final Score: Fort Valley State 75, Florida A&M 70
Date: November 05, 2026
Venue: Fort Valley State @ Florida A&M
Type: Non-Division I Upset
Favorite: Florida A&M (Ranked #355)
Underdog: Fort Valley State (non-D1, unranked)
Margin of Defeat: 5 points
Upset Rating: 26.2
Key Factors:
- Turnovers: Florida A&M committed 20 turnovers
- Foul trouble: Florida A&M had 1 player with 4+ fouls
Week 1 Summary
Total Upsets: 9
Non-D1 Upsets: 1
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 8
The week was defined by tightly contested matchups, with seven of the nine recorded upsets decided by five points or fewer and no blowouts occurring where a game was played 15 points or more apart. The average margin of victory across these contests stood at 5.6 points, highlighting a period dominated by narrow margins rather than decisive blowouts. This environment of competitiveness allowed lower-ranked programs to secure significant victories over higher-seeded opponents, with the highest-rated upsets generally corresponding to larger point deficits in the favor of the underdog.
Among the most surprising results was the victory of #87 Memphis over #31 Iowa State, an upset carrying a rating of 36.5. This game served as a stark contrast to others on the list where rankings were closer but upsets still occurred; for instance, #249 N Illinois pulled off a win against #118 Dayton in a contest with a high upset rating of 47.6, while #168 Quinnipiac defeated #128 Vermont. The data suggests that a larger disparity in ranking does not guarantee a lower probability of an upset occurring if the final score remains close.
Further down the list, #185 Toledo beat #99 Marshall with an upset rating of 15.3, and #142 Youngstown St secured a victory against #80 St Bonaventure rated at 12.1. In the mid-section of the rankings, #237 Sacred Heart outlasted #167 UNH (Rating: 9.6), while #273 Bryant defeated #144 Siena in a game rated 6.6, marking the lowest-ranked team to win during this week. At the opposite end of the spectrum regarding ranking but sharing similar characteristics of a non-D1 upset, #NR Fort Valley State defeated #355 Florida A&M with an upset rating of 26.2. Overall, the statistical landscape of the week was one of defensive struggle and efficient scoring from the underdogs, as evidenced by the complete absence of any game being decided by more than 15 points.
