Big Ten Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, USC
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1651.9 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.11 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Indiana

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1604.3 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +46.73 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Iowa

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1567.2 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.65 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Maryland

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1636.2 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.03 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Michigan

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1648.2 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.46 (ranked 27 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Michigan State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1698.8 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.75 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Minnesota

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1518.4 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.48 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Nebraska

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1598.0 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.39 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Northwestern

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1578.9 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.04 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ohio State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1574.4 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.80 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Oregon

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1652.5 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.82 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Penn State

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1561.5 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.68 (ranked 76 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Purdue

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1693.0 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.85 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Rutgers

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1541.2 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.00 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UCLA

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1617.6 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.83 (ranked 110 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

USC

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1551.6 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.02 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Washington

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1512.2 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.08 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wisconsin

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1651.5 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.28 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Conference